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Super Bowl 50 Box Square Pool Probability – Best and Worst Numbers to have

If you got suckered by one of your coworkers into one of these Super Bowl box pools, don’t worry, consider the money gone, anything you win will be a bonus.  There are 100 boxes in a typical pool, and if you’re playing for the grand prize, which typically is the final score, the odds of hitting one of the boxes SHOULD be 1%, but realistically the real odds spread out depending on the numbers.  The best numbers to have are going to be 0, 3 and 7, since most of the scoring are done in 3 or 7 point increments.

Super Bowl Scores

Let’s first take a look at the final scores for all the Super Bowl games in previous years:

Game Date Winning team Winning Score Losing team Losing Score
I 1/15/1967 Green Bay Packers 35 Kansas City Chiefs 10
II 1/14/1968 Green Bay Packers 33 Oakland Raiders 14
III 1/12/1969 New York Jets 16 Baltimore Colts 7
IV 1/11/1970 Kansas City Chiefs 23 Minnesota Vikings 7
V 1/17/1971 Baltimore Colts 16 Dallas Cowboys 13
VI 1/16/1972 Dallas Cowboys 24 Miami Dolphins 3
VII 1/14/1973 Miami Dolphins 14 Washington Redskins 7
VIII 1/13/1974 Miami Dolphins 24 Minnesota Vikings 7
IX 1/12/1975 Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Minnesota Vikings 6
X 1/18/1976 Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Dallas Cowboys 17
XI 1/9/1977 Oakland Raiders 32 Minnesota Vikings 14
XII 1/15/1978 Dallas Cowboys 27 Denver Broncos 10
XIII 1/21/1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 35 Dallas Cowboys 31
XIV 1/20/1980 Pittsburgh Steelers 31 Los Angeles Rams 19
XV 1/25/1981 Oakland Raiders 27 Philadelphia Eagles 10
XVI 1/24/1982 San Francisco 49ers 26 Cincinnati Bengals 21
XVII 1/30/1983 Washington Redskins 27 Miami Dolphins 17
XVIII 1/22/1984 Los Angeles Raiders 38 Washington Redskins 9
XIX 1/20/1985 San Francisco 49ers 38 Miami Dolphins 16
XX 1/26/1986 Chicago Bears 46 New England Patriots 10
XXI 1/25/1987 New York Giants 39 Denver Broncos 20
XXII 1/31/1988 Washington Redskins 42 Denver Broncos 10
XXIII 1/22/1989 San Francisco 49ers 20 Cincinnati Bengals 16
XXIV 1/28/1990 San Francisco 49ers 55 Denver Broncos 10
XXV 1/27/1991 New York Giants 20 Buffalo Bills 19
XXVI 1/26/1992 Washington Redskins 37 Buffalo Bills 24
XXVII 1/31/1993 Dallas Cowboys 52 Buffalo Bills 17
XXVIII 1/30/1994 Dallas Cowboys 30 Buffalo Bills 13
XXIX 1/29/1995 San Francisco 49ers 49 San Diego Chargers 26
XXX 1/28/1996 Dallas Cowboys 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 17
XXXI 1/26/1997 Green Bay Packers 35 New England Patriots 21
XXXII 1/25/1998 Denver Broncos 31 Green Bay Packers 24
XXXIII 1/31/1999 Denver Broncos 34 Atlanta Falcons 19
XXXIV 1/30/2000 St. Louis Rams 23 Tennessee Titans 16
XXXV 1/28/2001 Baltimore Ravens 34 New York Giants 7
XXXVI 2/3/2002 New England Patriots 20 St. Louis Rams 17
XXXVII 1/26/2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48 Oakland Raiders 21
XXXVIII 2/1/2004 New England Patriots 32 Carolina Panthers 29
XXXIX 2/6/2005 New England Patriots 24 Philadelphia Eagles 21
XL 2/5/2006 Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Seattle Seahawks 10
XLI 2/4/2007 Indianapolis Colts 29 Chicago Bears 17
XLII 2/3/2008 New York Giants 17 New England Patriots 14
XLIII 2/1/2009 Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Arizona Cardinals 23
XLIV 2/7/2010 New Orleans Saints 31 Indianapolis Colts 17
XLV 2/6/2011 Green Bay Packers 31 Pittsburgh Steelers 25
XLVI 2/5/2012 New York Giants 21 New England Patriots 17
XLVII 2/3/2013 Baltimore Ravens 34 San Francisco 49ers 31
XLVIII 2/2/2014 Seattle Seahawks 43 Denver Broncos 8
XLIX 2/1/2015 New England Patriots 28 Seattle Seahawks 24

Super Bowl 50 Box Square Pool Probability

Based on the 49 prior Super Bowl matchups, the two most common final scores ended with 4 (winner) and (7 loser), which happend 3 times, and also 1 (winner) and (7 loser), also happened 3 times.

super bowl box probabilities

Super Bowl Box Square Pool Probability Based on 2015 Regular Season Scores

But the sample size is so small with just 49 games, and most of those games were played in different eras, they definitely do not reflect the pace and strategies of current football games.  So to get a better perspective of football score box probabilities, let’s take a look at the odds from scores for the 2015 season, including 10 playoff games, making the sample size of 266 games.

As you can see from the table below, the best number to have is definitely number 0, and followed not too far behind are 3, 4, and 7.  The worst number to have by far would be the Debbie downer number 5.

Good luck and enjoy the big game!

super bowl box probabilities 2015