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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-06-17

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 43 45 29.89 49%
4 7 22 -49.88 24%
3 17 19 3.77 47%
2 23 28 -1.05 45%
1 36 34 -1.73 51%
Total 126 148 -19.00 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 3 2 -2.25 60%
 -200 to -250 17 6 4.45 74%
 -150 to -200 48 33 -6.99 59%
 +100 to -150 101 90 -9.75 53%
Underdogs 18 27 -5.07 40%
Total 187 158 -19.61 54%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Chi. White Sox 215 2.33 5 8%
NY Mets 150 3.33 5 6%
Milwaukee -160 8 5 5%
LA Angels -129 5.16 4 4%
Cincinnati 145 2.76 4 4%
Houston -117 3.51 3 3%
Detroit -101 3.03 3 3%
Arizona -125 2.5 2 2%
Cleveland -124 2.48 2 2%
Baltimore -111 2.22 2 2%
Pittsburgh 110 0.91 1 1%
NY Yankees -131 1.31 1 1%
Miami 104 0.96 1 1%
Colorado -170 1.7 1 1%
Cleveland -125 1.25 1 1%
Texas -128 1.28 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Toronto -240
Colorado -170
Washington -160
Milwaukee -160
LA Dodgers -155
NY Yankees -131
LA Angels -129
Texas -128
Arizona -125
Cleveland -125
Cleveland -124
Chi. Cubs -120
Houston -117
Atlanta -114
Baltimore -111
Detroit -101

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