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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-07-20

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 85 110 -29.32 44%
4 27 42 -47.02 39%
3 41 45 0.71 48%
2 63 66 10.55 49%
1 100 106 -10.95 49%
Total 316 369 -76.03 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 13 4 1.95 76%
 -200 to -250 37 20 -6.10 65%
 -150 to -200 108 72 -11.94 60%
 +100 to -150 215 193 -23.03 53%
Underdogs 38 56 -11.63 40%
Total 411 345 -50.75 54%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Texas -105 5.25 5 7%
Boston -112 5.6 5 6%
Seattle 111 4.5 5 5%
San Diego 180 2.22 4 4%
Milwaukee 120 1.67 2 2%
Detroit -108 1.08 1 1%
Arizona 104 0.96 1 1%
LA Dodgers -210 2.1 1 1%
St. Louis -102 1.02 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
LA Dodgers -210
San Francisco -200
Pittsburgh -130
Cincinnati -114
Boston -112
Detroit -108
NY Mets -108
Texas -105
Seattle 111

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MLB Public Picks For 2017-07-20

EYO MLB Predictions 2017-07-20