We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com. In their own words on how they pick the games…
This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.
What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations. In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:
- Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
- Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.
MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record
Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)
“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)
|-250 or Greater||13||5||-0.90||72%|
|-200 to -250||37||22||-10.20||63%|
|-150 to -200||111||73||-10.53||60%|
|+100 to -150||222||201||-25.96||52%|
MLB Computer Simulation Predictions
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