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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-07-22

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 86 115 -48.05 43%
4 29 43 -41.44 40%
3 41 47 -5.46 47%
2 64 68 8.24 48%
1 104 112 -13.47 48%
Total 324 385 -100.18 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 13 5 -0.90 72%
 -200 to -250 37 22 -10.20 63%
 -150 to -200 111 73 -10.53 60%
 +100 to -150 222 201 -25.96 52%
Underdogs 38 58 -13.34 40%
Total 421 359 -60.93 54%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

Seattle 128 3.91 5 8%
Houston -127 6.35 5 8%
Texas 165 3.03 5 6%
Miami -106 3.18 3 3%
San Diego 125 2.4 3 3%
Atlanta 220 0.91 2 2%
Detroit 113 1.77 2 2%
Chi. White Sox 161 0.62 1 1%
Chi. Cubs -154 1.54 1 1%
Cleveland -122 1.22 1 1%
Washington -108 1.08 1 1%
Colorado -126 1.26 1 1%
Boston -125 1.25 1 1%
Oakland -105 1.05 1 1%
Philadelphia 110 0.91 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
LA Dodgers -285
Boston -180
Kansas City -170
NY Mets -162
San Francisco -159
Chi. Cubs -148
Washington -140
Houston -140
Cleveland -139
Colorado -134
Minnesota -132
Texas -125
NY Yankees -120
Miami -103
Milwaukee 124

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MLB Public Picks For 2017-07-22

EYO MLB Predictions 2017-07-22