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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-07-24

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 90 116 -32.95 44%
4 30 44 -40.86 41%
3 43 51 -10.57 46%
2 65 71 5.08 48%
1 112 117 -10.26 49%
Total 340 399 -89.56 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 15 5 1.10 75%
 -200 to -250 37 22 -10.20 63%
 -150 to -200 115 74 -8.33 61%
 +100 to -150 234 210 -25.19 53%
Underdogs 39 59 -13.32 40%
Total 440 370 -55.94 54%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Houston -152 7.6 5 6%
Oakland 141 3.55 5 6%
Colorado 126 3.97 5 5%
Atlanta 180 2.78 5 5%
Boston 140 2.86 4 4%
Tampa Bay -106 3.18 3 3%
Kansas City 137 2.19 3 3%
Cincinnati 175 1.71 3 3%
Miami 134 1.49 2 2%
San Francisco 133 1.5 2 2%
Chi. White Sox 205 0.98 2 2%
LA Dodgers -230 2.3 1 1%
San Diego 150 0.67 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Chi. Cubs -235
LA Dodgers -230
Arizona -200
Cleveland -190
NY Mets -160
Houston -152
Toronto -151
Seattle -150
Detroit -147
Texas -144
Pittsburgh -143
St. Louis -136
Tampa Bay -106

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MLB Public Picks For 2017-07-24

EYO MLB Predictions 2017-07-24