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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-07-25

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 91 119 -38.25 43%
4 30 45 -43.72 40%
3 44 53 -12.46 45%
2 67 72 7.58 48%
1 113 118 -9.93 49%
Total 345 407 -96.78 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 15 5 1.10 75%
 -200 to -250 39 23 -10.55 63%
 -150 to -200 120 74 -3.33 62%
 +100 to -150 236 213 -27.16 53%
Underdogs 39 59 -13.32 40%
Total 449 374 -53.26 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Tampa Bay -108 5.4 5 8%
Houston -160 8 5 6%
Chi. White Sox 190 2.63 5 6%
Kansas City 132 3.03 4 4%
LA Dodgers -180 7.2 4 4%
NY Mets -103 3.09 3 3%
Pittsburgh 106 2.83 3 3%
Boston 107 1.87 2 2%
Atlanta 140 0.71 1 1%
Cincinnati 155 0.65 1 1%
LA Angels 150 0.67 1 1%
Miami 123 0.81 1 1%
Colorado 117 0.85 1 1%
Milwaukee 116 0.86 1 1%
Oakland -102 1.02 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Chi. Cubs -210
LA Dodgers -180
NY Yankees -165
Cleveland -160
Houston -160
Arizona -150
Detroit -142
Texas -133
St. Louis -127
Washington -126
Seattle -117
Tampa Bay -108
Toronto -108
NY Mets -103
Pittsburgh 106

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MLB Public Picks For 2017-07-25

EYO Parlay of the Day 2017-07-25