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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-07-28

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 95 130 -55.59 42%
4 34 46 -30.30 43%
3 46 56 -12.77 45%
2 68 74 6.84 48%
1 117 124 -11.09 49%
Total 360 430 -102.91 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 16 5 2.10 76%
 -200 to -250 45 24 -6.60 65%
 -150 to -200 130 75 5.17 63%
 +100 to -150 246 219 -24.30 53%
Underdogs 40 61 -14.03 40%
Total 477 384 -37.66 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

You need a login access to see these picks.  If you don’t already have a login, simply sign up for our EYO Insider Membership to get access to the picks below.

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Chi. White Sox 210 2.38 5 9%
Houston -159 7.95 5 7%
LA Angels 150 3.33 5 7%
Kansas City 170 2.94 5 6%
Miami -118 5.9 5 6%
Tampa Bay 162 2.47 4 4%
Arizona 110 2.73 3 3%
Philadelphia 115 2.61 3 3%
Seattle -149 2.98 2 2%
Milwaukee 129 0.78 1 1%
Oakland 100 1 1 1%
San Francisco 255 0.39 1 1%
San Diego 109 0.92 1 1%
Baltimore 128 0.78 1 1%
Colorado 126 0.79 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
LA Dodgers -290
Cleveland -230
Boston -185
NY Yankees -174
Toronto -160
Houston -159
Seattle -149
Chi. Cubs -139
Texas -138
Washington -136
Atlanta -125
Pittsburgh -119
Miami -118
Minnesota -110
Arizona 110

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WNBA Predictions and Injuries 2017-07-28

EYO MLB Predictions 2017-07-28