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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-07-28

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 95 130 -55.59 42%
4 34 46 -30.30 43%
3 46 56 -12.77 45%
2 68 74 6.84 48%
1 117 124 -11.09 49%
Total 360 430 -102.91 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 16 5 2.10 76%
 -200 to -250 45 24 -6.60 65%
 -150 to -200 130 75 5.17 63%
 +100 to -150 246 219 -24.30 53%
Underdogs 40 61 -14.03 40%
Total 477 384 -37.66 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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WNBA Predictions and Injuries 2017-07-28

EYO MLB Predictions 2017-07-28