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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-07-31

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 99 141 -77.59 41%
4 34 50 -46.93 40%
3 48 59 -15.60 45%
2 68 82 -10.13 45%
1 119 136 -21.34 47%
Total 368 468 -171.59 44%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 17 7 -2.70 71%
 -200 to -250 46 25 -8.00 65%
 -150 to -200 132 83 -5.96 61%
 +100 to -150 250 242 -48.99 51%
Underdogs 40 65 -17.66 38%
Total 485 422 -83.31 53%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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MLB Public Picks For 2017-07-31

EYO Parlay of the Day 2017-07-31