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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-08-01

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 99 145 -95.96 41%
4 34 51 -51.17 40%
3 48 59 -15.60 45%
2 68 82 -10.13 45%
1 119 140 -26.06 46%
Total 368 477 -198.92 44%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 17 7 -2.70 71%
 -200 to -250 46 26 -10.05 64%
 -150 to -200 132 85 -9.15 61%
 +100 to -150 250 248 -56.19 50%
Underdogs 40 65 -17.66 38%
Total 485 431 -95.75 53%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Chi. White Sox 200 2.5 5 12%
Houston -108 5.4 5 11%
Miami 190 2.63 5 7%
LA Angels -110 5.5 5 5%
Seattle 104 3.85 4 4%
Kansas City 116 3.45 4 4%
Oakland -121 3.63 3 3%
San Diego -102 3.06 3 3%
NY Mets 118 1.69 2 2%
St. Louis 106 1.89 2 2%
Cleveland 146 0.68 1 1%
Atlanta 161 0.62 1 1%
Chi. Cubs -167 1.67 1 1%
Detroit 165 0.61 1 1%
Cincinnati 162 0.62 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Toronto -220
Washington -210
NY Yankees -180
Pittsburgh -174
LA Dodgers -172
Chi. Cubs -167
Boston -156
Colorado -128
Baltimore -126
Oakland -121
Milwaukee -116
LA Angels -110
Houston -108
San Diego -102
Seattle 104

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MLB Public Picks For 2017-08-01

EYO MLB Predictions 2017-08-01