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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-08-02

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 105 143 -57.13 42%
4 37 50 -31.22 43%
3 48 61 -22.68 44%
2 72 80 2.41 47%
1 127 136 -11.53 48%
Total 389 470 -120.15 45%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 19 5 5.10 79%
 -200 to -250 49 25 -4.70 66%
 -150 to -200 139 83 0.70 63%
 +100 to -150 266 238 -27.21 53%
Underdogs 41 65 -16.66 39%
Total 514 416 -42.77 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Chi. White Sox 180 2.78 5 10%
Detroit 230 2.17 5 7%
Houston -185 9.25 5 5%
Minnesota -107 4.28 4 4%
Atlanta 162 2.47 4 4%
Philadelphia 180 2.22 4 4%
Oakland 125 2.4 3 3%
Miami 105 1.9 2 2%
Pittsburgh -155 3.1 2 2%
Milwaukee -120 2.4 2 2%
Kansas City 110 0.91 1 1%
Seattle 100 1 1 1%
Arizona 135 0.74 1 1%
Colorado -140 1.4 1 1%
Cleveland 108 0.93 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
NY Yankees -260
Toronto -200
LA Angels -200
Houston -185
LA Dodgers -174
Pittsburgh -155
Chi. Cubs -145
Colorado -140
San Francisco -135
Baltimore -120
Milwaukee -120
Boston -118
Washington -115
Minnesota -107
Seattle 100

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MLB Public Picks For 2017-08-02

EYO MLB Predictions 2017-08-02