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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-08-12

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 119 170 -91.22 41%
4 44 58 -25.01 43%
3 65 70 -1.40 48%
2 80 91 -3.46 47%
1 146 152 -8.93 49%
Total 454 541 -130.02 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 23 8 0.70 74%
 -200 to -250 56 26 0.10 68%
 -150 to -200 159 103 -13.07 61%
 +100 to -150 296 275 -43.83 52%
Underdogs 45 75 -21.47 38%
Total 579 487 -77.57 54%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Chi. Cubs -112 5.6 5 5%
Boston 145 3.45 5 5%
San Francisco 177 2.82 5 5%
Cleveland 126 3.97 5 5%
NY Mets 120 4.17 5 5%
Atlanta 205 2.44 5 5%
Miami 110 2.73 3 3%
Detroit 100 3 3 3%
Chi. White Sox 134 2.24 3 3%
LA Angels 125 2.4 3 3%
Baltimore -108 2.16 2 2%
Cincinnati 130 0.77 1 1%
Pittsburgh -107 1.07 1 1%
San Diego 210 0.48 1 1%
Texas 120 0.83 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
LA Dodgers -240
St. Louis -230
Washington -194
NY Yankees -155
Kansas City -144
Milwaukee -140
Tampa Bay -136
Seattle -135
Philadelphia -130
Houston -130
Colorado -120
Chi. Cubs -112
Baltimore -108
Pittsburgh -107
Detroit 100

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MLB Public Picks For 2017-08-12

EYO Parlay of the Day 2017-08-12