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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-08-19

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 127 182 -96.56 41%
4 50 63 -15.69 44%
3 74 79 1.15 48%
2 87 100 -3.23 47%
1 163 166 -5.43 50%
Total 501 590 -119.76 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 26 8 3.70 76%
 -200 to -250 65 28 4.85 70%
 -150 to -200 173 109 -9.15 61%
 +100 to -150 330 295 -33.70 53%
Underdogs 49 79 -21.15 38%
Total 643 519 -55.45 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Toronto 210 2.38 5 6%
NY Yankees 220 2.27 5 6%
LA Angels 140 3.57 5 5%
Miami 104 3.85 4 4%
Houston -170 6.8 4 4%
Kansas City 125 3.2 4 4%
Milwaukee 146 2.05 3 3%
Detroit 150 2 3 3%
Pittsburgh 114 1.75 2 2%
Seattle -105 2.1 2 2%
Washington -176 3.52 2 2%
Chi. White Sox 185 1.08 2 2%
Minnesota 132 1.52 2 2%
Cincinnati 129 0.78 1 1%
San Francisco -135 1.35 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Boston -250
Chi. Cubs -240
Texas -205
Washington -176
Houston -170
LA Dodgers -160
Colorado -156
Baltimore -150
Arizona -142
Atlanta -139
Cleveland -135
San Francisco -135
St. Louis -124
Seattle -105
Miami 104

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MLB Public Picks For 2017-08-19

EYO Parlay of the Day 2017-08-19