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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-08-25

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 141 194 -76.82 42%
4 54 67 -11.74 45%
3 82 85 11.78 49%
2 98 105 9.80 48%
1 168 179 -16.20 48%
Total 543 630 -83.18 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 26 9 1.20 74%
 -200 to -250 68 31 1.20 69%
 -150 to -200 188 123 -17.10 60%
 +100 to -150 351 316 -40.12 53%
Underdogs 51 81 -20.89 39%
Total 684 560 -75.71 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Washington 169 2.96 5 8%
Chi. White Sox 148 3.38 5 7%
Colorado 106 4.72 5 5%
San Francisco 205 2.44 5 5%
Minnesota 170 2.35 4 4%
Philadelphia 175 2.29 4 4%
Houston -109 3.27 3 3%
Cleveland -127 3.81 3 3%
Seattle 143 2.1 3 3%
Tampa Bay 148 1.35 2 2%
Miami -155 3.1 2 2%
Baltimore 150 0.67 1 1%
Cincinnati 104 0.96 1 1%
LA Dodgers -185 1.85 1 1%
Texas 106 0.94 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Arizona -230
Chi. Cubs -190
Toronto -185
LA Dodgers -185
Boston -160
Detroit -158
St. Louis -158
Miami -155
NY Yankees -153
Cleveland -127
Oakland -116
Pittsburgh -114
Houston -109
Colorado 106
Washington 169

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EYO MLB Predictions 2017-08-23

WNBA Predictions and Injuries 2017-08-24