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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-08-29

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 147 202 -78.34 42%
4 59 70 -1.53 46%
3 88 88 19.50 50%
2 100 111 1.42 47%
1 176 188 -17.38 48%
Total 570 659 -76.33 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 26 9 1.20 74%
 -200 to -250 73 32 4.20 70%
 -150 to -200 198 134 -25.48 60%
 +100 to -150 363 326 -39.83 53%
Underdogs 54 85 -21.17 39%
Total 714 586 -81.08 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
NY Mets 140 3.57 5 7%
LA Dodgers -130 5.2 4 4%
St. Louis -105 4.2 4 4%
Detroit 130 2.31 3 3%
Cleveland -105 3.15 3 3%
Pittsburgh 190 1.58 3 3%
Toronto 205 1.46 3 3%
Tampa Bay 105 1.9 2 2%
Miami 129 1.55 2 2%
Houston -145 2.9 2 2%
San Francisco 105 0.95 1 1%
Atlanta -102 1.02 1 1%
Seattle 124 0.81 1 1%
LA Angels -153 1.53 1 1%
Minnesota -200 2 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Boston -230
Chi. Cubs -210
Minnesota -200
LA Angels -153
Cincinnati -150
Houston -145
Colorado -140
Washington -140
Baltimore -134
LA Dodgers -130
San Diego -115
St. Louis -105
Cleveland -105
Atlanta -102
Tampa Bay 105

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MLB Public Picks For 2017-08-29

EYO Parlay of the Day 2017-08-29