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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-09-01

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 151 210 -90.89 42%
4 61 72 -0.72 46%
3 89 92 15.51 49%
2 101 119 -15.59 46%
1 181 193 -16.53 48%
Total 583 686 -108.22 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 26 9 1.20 74%
 -200 to -250 80 32 11.20 71%
 -150 to -200 202 136 -24.94 60%
 +100 to -150 373 338 -44.31 52%
Underdogs 56 88 -22.08 39%
Total 737 603 -78.93 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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