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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-09-01

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 151 210 -90.89 42%
4 61 72 -0.72 46%
3 89 92 15.51 49%
2 101 119 -15.59 46%
1 181 193 -16.53 48%
Total 583 686 -108.22 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 26 9 1.20 74%
 -200 to -250 80 32 11.20 71%
 -150 to -200 202 136 -24.94 60%
 +100 to -150 373 338 -44.31 52%
Underdogs 56 88 -22.08 39%
Total 737 603 -78.93 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Washington 134 3.73 5 10%
Boston 158 3.16 5 6%
Chi. White Sox 155 3.23 5 6%
Miami -148 7.4 5 5%
Detroit 200 2.5 5 5%
Texas -101 4.04 4 4%
St. Louis -108 3.24 3 3%
San Diego 250 1.2 3 3%
Atlanta 175 1.14 2 2%
Cleveland -166 1.66 1 1%
Baltimore -174 1.74 1 1%
Oakland 125 0.8 1 1%
Cincinnati 115 0.87 1 1%
Minnesota -109 1.09 1 1%
Arizona -106 1.06 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
LA Dodgers -290
Cleveland -220
Chi. Cubs -190
Baltimore -174
NY Yankees -168
Cleveland -166
Tampa Bay -165
Miami -148
Seattle -135
Pittsburgh -125
Minnesota -109
St. Louis -108
Colorado -104
Texas -101
Washington 134

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