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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-09-03

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

UnitsWLTotal Units%
5153219-112.8541%
463735.7446%
3909415.0949%
2102123-21.5545%
1188196-12.0449%
Total596705-125.6146%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

OddsWLTotal Units%
 -250 or Greater31103.6076%
 -200 to -250813212.2072%
 -150 to -200207139-24.8360%
 +100 to -150381345-44.8752%
Underdogs5690-23.8138%
Total756616-77.7155%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value PickOddsRisk UnitsTo Win UnitsValue
Detroit1752.8657%
Texas1154.3557%
Chi. White Sox1443.4756%
Atlanta2102.3855%
Minnesota-140755%
San Diego200244%
Washington1102.7333%
NY Mets2101.4333%
San Francisco1051.922%
Pittsburgh-1272.5422%
Oakland1381.4522%
Arizona100111%
Baltimore-1371.3711%
Philadelphia1800.5611%
Boston-1151.1511%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is PickOdds
Chi. Cubs-240
Houston-240
LA Dodgers-220
Miami-200
Cleveland-190
Tampa Bay-154
Seattle-148
Minnesota-140
Baltimore-137
Pittsburgh-127
St. Louis-115
Boston-115
Arizona100
Washington110
Texas115

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