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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-09-03

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 153 219 -112.85 41%
4 63 73 5.74 46%
3 90 94 15.09 49%
2 102 123 -21.55 45%
1 188 196 -12.04 49%
Total 596 705 -125.61 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 31 10 3.60 76%
 -200 to -250 81 32 12.20 72%
 -150 to -200 207 139 -24.83 60%
 +100 to -150 381 345 -44.87 52%
Underdogs 56 90 -23.81 38%
Total 756 616 -77.71 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Detroit 175 2.86 5 7%
Texas 115 4.35 5 7%
Chi. White Sox 144 3.47 5 6%
Atlanta 210 2.38 5 5%
Minnesota -140 7 5 5%
San Diego 200 2 4 4%
Washington 110 2.73 3 3%
NY Mets 210 1.43 3 3%
San Francisco 105 1.9 2 2%
Pittsburgh -127 2.54 2 2%
Oakland 138 1.45 2 2%
Arizona 100 1 1 1%
Baltimore -137 1.37 1 1%
Philadelphia 180 0.56 1 1%
Boston -115 1.15 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Chi. Cubs -240
Houston -240
LA Dodgers -220
Miami -200
Cleveland -190
Tampa Bay -154
Seattle -148
Minnesota -140
Baltimore -137
Pittsburgh -127
St. Louis -115
Boston -115
Arizona 100
Washington 110
Texas 115

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