The Padres aren’t broke. They aren’t even close. But quietly, while everyone was busy watching the Dodgers print money, San Diego built one of the most lopsided salary structures in baseball — and the bill is about to come due.

Through the 2034 season, the Padres owe their current players roughly $1.22 billion in guaranteed money. Most of it goes to just four men. By the time the back end of those contracts hits, three of those four will be in their mid-to-late thirties.

That’s not a death sentence. But it is a problem with a clock attached.

The $927 Million Quartet

San Diego’s long-term commitments are concentrated in four players. Together, they account for more than three-quarters of every dollar the team is contractually on the hook for through 2034.

For context, $927 million is more than the entire 2026 payroll of eleven Major League Baseball teams combined.

The Year-by-Year Cliff

The Padres’ total commitments don’t gradually drift down. They fall off a cliff. Two cliffs, actually.

The first cliff hits between 2026 and 2029, when payroll drops by nearly $84 million as one-year deals (Buehler, Castellanos, France, Laureano) and short-term contracts (Musgrove, Darvish, Peralta) expire. The second hits in 2034, when Machado and Bogaerts finish their deals. After that, nothing. Empty ledger.

In the near term, that concentration limits flexibility. Preller can’t easily trade for help during the next two seasons because there’s no room to absorb salary. The team will operate within its current core or not at all.

The Machado Albatross

If one contract keeps Padres fans up at night, it’s Manny Machado’s. He signed an 11-year, $350 million extension in February 2023 at age 30, when he was hitting second behind Juan Soto in a stacked lineup.

Three years later, the picture has darkened. Machado opened 2026 with a .191 average and a .647 OPS — career-worst numbers. He’s 33. He plays third base, a young man’s position. And the team still owes him $39 million per year for seven more seasons.

“$273 Million for a Player’s Age 34–40 Seasons”

Almost no position player in modern history has been worth $39 million per season at 38, 39, or 40. The list of players who’ve stayed productive into their late thirties is short and dominated by designated hitters. Machado is a third baseman.

If he bounces back, the contract is manageable. If 2026 is the beginning of a real decline, this becomes one of the worst deals in the sport.

The Silver Linings

It’s not all doom. Several contracts on the books are genuine bargains, and the long-term outlook has real upside.

Merrill’s deal is the team’s masterpiece. Nine years, $135 million for a 23-year-old All-Star center fielder still on his first big contract is the kind of bargain championship teams are built around.

And those cliffs cut both ways. When 2029 arrives, the Padres will have nearly $90 million in fresh payroll flexibility — enough to chase a top free agent or two without breaking the bank.