The NFL season kicks off this week, which means it’s time to make your survivor pool picks. Choosing which team to pick each week in a survivor pool is all about finding the safest options. You want to avoid upsets and advance to the next week.
For Week 1, focusing on favorites at home is a good strategy. Home teams historically have an edge, especially when favored by a touchdown or more. With that in mind, here are the 5 best Week 1 survivor pool picks based on the opening spreads:
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
The Ravens host the Texans as 9.5 point favorites, the largest spread among home teams. Baltimore gets back a healthy Lamar Jackson at quarterback and has too much talent on both sides of the ball for Houston to keep up. The Texans are well into a long rebuild and don’t pose much of an upset threat on the road against a focused Ravens squad.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
In this NFC West rivalry game, the Seahawks are favored by 5.5 at home against the rebuilding Rams. Seattle is in transition but returns most of its stingy defense from last year. The Rams have concerns on the offensive line and secondary. The Seahawks can lean on their 12th man crowd noise advantage to slow down the aging Rams.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
The Vikings are sizable 6.5 point favorites at home against the Packers. Minnesota made big additions to its defense. The Vikings are poised to make noise this season behind QB Kirk Cousins and receiver Justin Jefferson. On the other side, the Packers are in transition after trading away QB legend Aaron Rodgers and now relying on QB Jordan Love with a young receiving corps. With the Vikings at home and favored by over a touchdown, they look like one of the best survivor picks.
Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
The Chiefs are also 6.5 point favorites playing at home against the Lions. Kansas City still has Patrick Mahomes leading a potent offense. Detroit is rebuilding around young players like WR Amon-Ra St. Brown but struggles on defense. With Andy Reid’s track record off a bye week (technically counts on week 1?), the Chiefs should comfortably beat the Lions at home.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (-6)
Washington Commanders is favored by 6 points at home over the Cardinals. While neither team made the playoffs last year, Washington has improved its roster. Arizona QB situation is a hot mess, it does not have a reliable QB on its entire roster. They also have concerns on its aging offensive line and declining defense. The Commanders have a great opportunity to start the season strong playing at home.
Those are 5 home teams to target for survivor pool picks for Week 1 of the NFL season, ordered per your request. Focusing on sizeable home favorites is a smart strategy to start the year off right and survive to Week 2.