The fourth week of the 2023 NFL season saw several exciting matchups and standout performances. Rookies and veterans alike made big impacts as teams jockeyed for position in the early playoff picture.
The Detroit Lions got off to a strong start against the Green Bay Packers, stringing together five scoring drives in the first half. Running back David Montgomery, returning from injury, had a big day for the Lions with three rushing touchdowns and over 140 total yards. The Packers offense struggled in the first half but showed some life in the second half behind quarterback Jordan Love, who relied heavily on receiver Romeo Doubs. But the early deficit was too much for the Packers to overcome.
In Jacksonville, cornerback Darious Williams had a standout game for the Jaguars defense, limiting the Falcons passing attack all day. He allowed just one catch while forcing two incompletions.
The Los Angeles Rams continued to get big production from rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua, who broke the record for most receptions through a player’s first four games. Nacua scored the game-winning overtime touchdown.
In Baltimore, quarterback Lamar Jackson led the Ravens past the Browns by balancing 187 passing yards with a pair of rushing touchdowns. Tight end Mark Andrews was Jackson’s top target.
The Vikings defense dominated the Panthers, led by safety Harrison Smith who had three sacks and a forced fumble. Cornerback Sam Franklin Jr. had a pick six for the Panthers.
The Bills defense, led by tackle DaQuan Jones, limited the Dolphins offense in a blowout win. Jones had a sack and consistently generated pressure.
Grading Our Week 4 Survivor Pick: San Francisco
Through the first four weeks, our strategy of choosing home favorites rather than saving top teams for later has worked nicely.
The 49ers took care of business at home against the Cardinals, winning 35-16. Quarterback Brock Purdy had a nearly perfect game, and running back Christian McCaffrey found the end zone four times to lead the Niners offense. With the win, San Francisco improves to 4-0 on the season.
Picks So Far:
Through three weeks we’ve gone with the Ravens, Cowboys, and now Chiefs. All were comfortable wins, so we’ll look to continue riding home favorites. We’ll reassess and start planning for future weeks around Week 10, but for now we’ll keep rolling with solid teams at home as long as we can.
- Week 1: Baltimore
- Week 2: Dallas
- Week 3: Kansas City
- Week 4: San Francisco
- Week 5: Miami
This Week’s Spreads
- New York Giants vs Miami Dolphins (-10.5)
- Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions (-8.5)
- Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) vs Minnesota Vikings
- Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs Los Angeles Rams
- Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders (-7)
- Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs Arizona Cardinals
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
- Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs Las Vegas Raiders
- Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
- New York Jets vs Denver Broncos (-2.5)
- Houston Texans vs Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
- Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
- New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots (-1.5)
Survivor Pool Picks for NFL Week 5
1. New York Giants vs Miami Dolphins (-10.5)
I’m taking the Dolphins as my survivor pick this week despite their recent struggles. Miami has far more talent on both sides of the ball compared to the Giants. The Dolphins offense is loaded with playmakers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle that should be able to exploit the Giants’ weak pass defense. Miami’s pass rush will also give Daniel Jones problems. Even with some injuries, the Dolphins have a significant edge at home.
2. Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions (-8.5)
The Lions have been playing well to start the season 3-1. Their offense led by Jared Goff and David Montgomery has been firing on all cylinders. The Panthers are trending in the opposite direction. Detroit’s offensive line and run game match up favorably against Carolina’s defense. I expect the Lions to win by double digits.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) vs Minnesota Vikings
This is a big step up in competition for the one-dimensional Vikings offense facing the Chiefs defense on the road. Patrick Mahomes should be able to easily move the ball against Minnesota’s porous pass defense. The Chiefs are the safer pick to win.
4. Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
This is a rivalry game, but the Ravens are clearly the superior team this season, with a top 10 defense and the dual-threat ability of Lamar Jackson on offense. Pittsburgh’s offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL in scoring and yards. The Steelers won’t be able to keep up on the road in Baltimore.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) vs Los Angeles Rams
The Eagles are one of the two remaining undefeated teams in the NFL this season. Behind the dynamic Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia is top 5 in both scoring offense and defense. Even on the road, they match up very well against the Rams and should take care of business comfortably.