When betting on NFL games, most sportsbooks will offer a standard passing yards line for quarterbacks. For example, Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards may be set at 275.5 yards.
However, savvy bettors know that alternate passing yards lines can provide an edge if utilized properly. Here’s a guide on how to take advantage of alternate passing yards in your NFL betting.
What Are Alternate Passing Yards Lines?
Alternate passing yards lines allow you to bet on yardage totals above or below the standard passing yards line set by the sportsbook.
For instance, if Mahomes’ standard line is 275.5 passing yards, there may be alternate lines like:
- 225.5 passing yards
- 250.5 passing yards
- 300.5 passing yards
- 350.5 passing yards
The alternates effectively let you move the line yourself, either buying yards or selling yards compared to the original number.
Buying Yards for Safety
One way to use alternate passing yards lines is to “buy” extra yards for a safer bet.
For example, if you bet Mahomes ‘over’ 275.5 passing yards, he could finish with 273 yards and you’d lose the bet.
But if you bet him ‘over’ 250.5 passing yards instead, you’ve bought yourself an additional 25 yards of cushion. Mahomes would now only need 251 yards to hit the ‘over’ for you.
The tradeoff is the odds are lower on the alternate line since it’s safer. But in a parlay bet, paying for extra yards on a leg can be worth it to increase your overall chances.
Selling Yards for Higher Payout
Conversely, you can go the other direction and “sell” yards in exchange for plus odds and bigger payouts.
Let’s say Mahomes averaged 300 passing yards per game last season. His 275.5 line seems low to you.
Rather than betting the standard over, you could bet on an alternate line of ‘over’ 300.5 or 325.5 passing yards. If he hits those bigger totals, your payout will be higher thanks to the positive odds from selling yards.
This strategy works best when you expect a quarterback to have a big game and blow past their standard total. Sportsbooks price alternate lines assuming regression toward the mean.
Using Alternates for Leverage on Team Total Bets
Alternate passing yards lines can also be used as leverage on team total bets.
For example, say you bet the ‘under’ on the Chiefs team total of 27.5 points. But the projection models you use are forecasting over 300 passing yards for Mahomes.
You could bet ‘over’ on Mahomes’ passing yardage alternate line simultaneously to hedge your team total under bet. That way you can gain upside if the Chiefs pass for a ton of yards but fall just short of the point total.
Shop Around for the Best Alternate Lines
It’s worth checking several sportsbooks when looking for alternate passing yards lines. Some books go deeper with more options while others may not have any alternates.
Shopping around ensures you get access to the alternate numbers you want for a particular game scenario or bet type. Advanced bet tracking and line shopping tools like Oddsjam can help identify optimal alternate lines.
Alternate Passing Yards Lines
Alternate passing yards lines let savvy NFL bettors adjust the risk and reward of player passing props. Buying yards adds a safety net, selling yards boosts payout odds, and smart usage can hedge correlated bets. Be sure to shop around for the best alternate number options across sportsbooks.