One of the most popular football betting markets is rushing yards for individual players. Sportsbooks will set a line for how many rushing yards a running back or quarterback is projected to gain. However, bettors can also wager on alternative rushing yards lines that are higher or lower than the standard line.
What Are Alternative Rushing Yards Lines?
Alternative rushing yards lines allow you to bet on over/unders for rushing yard totals other than the main line set by oddsmakers.
For example, if Jonathan Taylor has a standard rushing yards line set at 98.5 yards, some alternative lines may look like:
- Over/Under 70.5 rushing yards
- Over/Under 80.5 rushing yards
- Over/Under 110.5 rushing yards
- Over/Under 130.5 rushing yards
The odds adjust based on how much the alternative line differs from the standard over/under.
Why Bet Alternative Rushing Yard Lines?
There are a few key reasons why betting alternative rushing yards lines can be advantageous:
Get Better Odds
The further the alternative line is from the standard over/under number, the more the odds will shift in your favor. This allows you to get a better potential payout if you are correct.
For example, Taylor over 110.5 rushing yards will pay much more than Taylor over 98.5 yards at standard odds.
Increase Win Probability
You can improve your chance of winning the bet by taking an alternative line below the standard number for the under or above the standard number for the over.
Betting Taylor under 90.5 yards instead of under 98.5 yards gives you more wiggle room to still win if he has a decent game.
Combine With Other Bets
An effective strategy is using alternative lines in parlays and teasers. The adjusted odds help offset the increased risk from those types of bets.
Having Taylor go over 80 rushing yards in a parlay gives you a better chance at a big payday.
Tips for Betting Alternative Rushing Yards Lines
Here are some useful tips to keep in mind when betting alternative rushing yards lines:
- Focus on key injuries, especially for offensive linemen, that may affect a rusher’s production.
- Look at recent trends for a team’s run/pass ratio. More passes equals fewer opportunities for rushing yards.
- Compare the player’s average yards per carry and number of projected carries to game totals from that season.
- Consider the strength of the opposing defensive line and linebackers. A weak run defense leads to more yards.
- Monitor the weather forecast. Bad conditions often lead to more rushing plays.
- For quarterbacks, assess how often they scramble or have designed run plays.
Pros and Cons of Alternative Rushing Yard Lines
As with any betting market, there are both advantages and disadvantages to wagering on alternative rushing yards lines:
Pros:
- Allows you to adjust odds in your favor
- Provides more options to increase win probability
- Opens up effective strategy for parlays/teasers
- Gain value on players projected to have big games
Cons:
- Have to accurately predict yardage away from main number
- Lose odds value if adjusting line against your bet
- Players may end with total just missing alternative line
- Injuries can suddenly impact projected rushing yards
Common Mistakes to Avoid
When betting alternative rushing yards lines, here are some mistakes to avoid:
- Betting alternative overs on players not expected to be featured in the gameplan
- Taking inflated lines just for the better payout without analyzing probability
- Making too many bets on alternative lines for the same player across multiple games
- Not checking injury reports before wagering on alternative rushing yards lines
- Not tracking coaching tendencies for how rushing volume changes in certain game scenarios
Key Takeaways on Alternative Rushing Yards Lines
- Allows betting over/unders at levels above or below the standard line
- Adjusts odds based on how much the line differs from the original number
- Useful for increasing payouts and win probability in certain situations
- Works well combined with other bets like parlays and teasers
- Must still analyze team situations, injuries, and other factors
Understanding how to effectively utilize alternative rushing yards lines will provide additional betting options and allow you to develop smart strategies. Just be sure to do your research before wagering on adjusted over/under rushing totals.