Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal recently recorded a podcast episode where they went through and made predictions on NFL futures bets for the upcoming 2023 season. The two longtime sports media personalities and betting enthusiasts covered MVP odds, win totals, exact record bets, and more.
MVP Pick – Patrick Mahomes
- Simmons is sticking with his tried and true MVP pick of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes at 6/1 odds.
- Says to “keep pounding Mahomes at 6/1” until he retires or leaves the league.
- Views it as a multi-generational play that will pay off every 3-4 years when Mahomes wins MVP.
- Calls it the “KCD bet” – Keep Choosing Damien (Mahomes).
- Sal likes Hurts for MVP at 12/1 for the value. Notes he’ll have lower odds later in season.
Most Points Scored – Eagles
- Simmons loves Eagles at 9/1 odds to score the most points this season.
- Thinks they have the most weapons and best offensive line in the league.
- Expects them to have several blowout wins with scores like 50-10 or 47-14.
- Sal likes the Cowboys at 10/1 odds. They were close last year with backups at QB.
Offensive Player of the Year – Josh Allen
- Simmons thinks Josh Allen at 30/1 is out of whack. Could have great stats on mediocre team.
- If Bills go 10-7 or 9-8 but Allen has incredible season, he wins award.
Comeback Player of the Year – Tua Tagovailoa
- Simmons notes Tua at 20/1 since could stay healthy and lead big year for Dolphins.
Defensive Player of the Year – Nick Bosa
- Sal likes Nick Bosa at 12/1 odds as the incumbent winner.
- Pass rushers often win back-to-back. Watt and Donald have done it recently.
- If Bosa plays week 1 his odds will likely go down. Good value now.
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Kenneth Walker III
- Sal picks Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III at 10/1 odds. Likes him more than others.
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Nakobe Dean
- Simmons likes Eagles LB Nakobe Dean at +550 odds. Called “Baby Rhino” in camp.
- Rookie CBs rarely win it. Dean could make an immediate impact.
Team With Worst Record – Los Angeles Rams
- Both like the Rams at 10/1 odds to have the worst record.
- Roster is aging, Cooper Kupp’s health is uncertain. Could be a disaster year.
Exact Record Bets
- Simmons looked for value on teams with narrow win range outcomes. Likes:
- Pittsburgh 11-6 (+700)
- Green Bay 10-7 (+700)
- Buffalo 9-8 (+700)
- Sal targeted the competitive AFC North:
- Baltimore 9-8 or 10-7 (+550)
- Cincinnati 10-7 or 11-6 (+550)
AFC Rushing Yards Leader – Rhamondre Stevenson
- Sal loves Damien Harris at +170 over backs like Breece Hall, Cook, Mostert.
- Stevenson took over as lead back last season. Could get even more carries.
Most Receiving Yards – Garrett Wilson
- Both like Wilson at 20/1 after his strong rookie season with poor QB play.
- Zach Wilson is an upgrade and Wilson is clearly Jets’ top receiver.
Geno Smith Most Passing Yards in NFC West
- Simmons sees value in Geno at +110 over unproven QBs like Lance and Murray.
Josh Allen Over 35 Passing TDs
- Sal notes Allen has hit 35+ TDs the past 3 years. Likes the over at +144.
Super Bowl Matchup – Chiefs vs. 49ers
- Simmons’ exact Super Bowl matchup is Chiefs over 49ers at 42/1 odds.
- Likes Chiefs and 49ers to both make conference championship games.
Division Winner Bets
- Sal’s favorite is the Browns at +380 odds to win AFC North after starting hot.
- Simmons likes these longshots:
- Steelers +470
- Titans +310
- Packers +350
- Saints +130
Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal covered over two dozen future bets and odds for the 2023 NFL season on their podcast. They focused on getting value with choices like Josh Allen for awards, longer shot teams to win divisions, and specific team win total guesses. Simmons is sticking with his usual Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes bets, while both agreed on bets like Garrett Wilson for receiving yards and the Rams to finish with the NFL’s worst record. It will be fun to track these predictions and see how many Simmons and Sal get right in the upcoming season.