MLB

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-05-30

Photo of author
Original Publish Date:

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

NOTE: These picks will be available to EYO Insider subscribers only starting June 1st, that is also when we will be raising our price permanently from $29.95 to $39.95. Be sure to lock in the low price now.

If you don’t already have a login, simply sign up for our EYO Insider Membership to get access to the picks below starting June 1st.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record

Units W L Total Units %
5 21 30 -29.51 41%
4 9 15 -21.94 38%
3 11 17 -13.95 39%
2 20 19 4.70 51%
1 31 22 7.97 58%
Total 92 103 -52.73 47%

“As Is” Pick Record

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 1 0 1.00 100%
 -200 to -250 11 5 0.85 69%
 -150 to -200 33 17 4.64 66%
 +100 to -150 59 52 -4.14 53%
Underdogs 10 7 3.40 59%
Total 114 81 5.75 58%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

Let’s give it a shot and see how these simulation picks do.

Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Houston 108 4.63 5 10%
Baltimore 125 4 5 9%
Chi. White Sox 163 3.07 5 8%
Washington 110 4.55 5 5%
Miami -110 5.5 5 5%
LA Angels -118 4.72 4 4%
Tampa Bay -109 3.27 3 3%
San Diego 131 2.29 3 3%
LA Dodgers -117 2.34 2 2%
Seattle 127 1.57 2 2%
Cincinnati 162 1.23 2 2%
NY Mets -115 2.3 2 2%
Oakland 152 0.66 1 1%
Kansas City 134 0.75 1 1%
Pittsburgh -101 1.01 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Boston -176
Toronto -174
Cleveland -162
Detroit -149
Chi. Cubs -141
Colorado -137
LA Angels -118
LA Dodgers -117
NY Mets -115
Miami -110
Tampa Bay -109
Pittsburgh -101
Houston 108
Washington 110
Baltimore 125

Leave a Comment