MLB

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-09-04

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We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 156 221 -107.71 41%
4 64 73 9.74 47%
3 90 96 10.93 48%
2 103 125 -22.90 45%
1 191 197 -10.19 49%
Total 604 712 -120.13 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 31 10 3.60 76%
 -200 to -250 82 35 6.60 70%
 -150 to -200 208 140 -25.37 60%
 +100 to -150 385 347 -43.42 53%
Underdogs 58 91 -22.72 39%
Total 764 623 -81.31 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

You need a login access to see these picks.  If you don’t already have a login, simply sign up for our EYO Insider Membership to get access to the picks below.

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Detroit 137 3.65 5 9%
Toronto 155 3.23 5 5%
Seattle 135 2.96 4 4%
Chi. White Sox 210 1.9 4 4%
Texas -104 4.16 4 4%
Pittsburgh 163 2.45 4 4%
LA Dodgers -145 5.8 4 4%
Washington 106 2.83 3 3%
San Francisco 155 1.94 3 3%
San Diego 147 1.36 2 2%
Milwaukee -123 2.46 2 2%
NY Mets -127 1.27 1 1%
LA Angels -138 1.38 1 1%
Baltimore -122 1.22 1 1%
Minnesota 112 0.89 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Cleveland -240
Chi. Cubs -176
Boston -165
Colorado -165
St. Louis -157
Kansas City -147
LA Dodgers -145
Houston -145
LA Angels -138
NY Mets -127
Milwaukee -123
Baltimore -122
Tampa Bay -122
Texas -104
Washington 106

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