MLB

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-09-06

Photo of author
Original Publish Date:

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 157 224 -111.52 41%
4 67 78 5.93 46%
3 93 98 15.65 49%
2 103 128 -27.97 45%
1 194 203 -13.40 49%
Total 614 731 -131.31 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 32 10 4.60 76%
 -200 to -250 83 35 7.60 70%
 -150 to -200 215 144 -25.54 60%
 +100 to -150 393 354 -44.50 53%
Underdogs 59 91 -21.72 39%
Total 782 634 -79.56 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Minnesota 156 3.21 5 8%
Detroit 135 3.7 5 7%
NY Mets -112 5.6 5 7%
Texas -103 5.15 5 7%
Chi. White Sox 230 2.17 5 5%
Arizona 156 2.56 4 4%
Pittsburgh 125 3.2 4 4%
Seattle 143 2.1 3 3%
Texas -120 2.4 2 2%
San Diego 102 1.96 2 2%
Toronto 155 0.65 1 1%
San Francisco 135 0.74 1 1%
Milwaukee 133 0.75 1 1%
Washington -131 1.31 1 1%
Oakland 116 0.86 1 1%
NY Yankees -105 1.05 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Cleveland -260
LA Dodgers -166
Tampa Bay -166
Boston -165
Houston -164
Colorado -145
Kansas City -145
Cincinnati -143
Chi. Cubs -135
Washington -131
LA Angels -126
Texas -120
NY Mets -112
St. Louis -112
Baltimore -105
Texas -103

Leave a Comment