Super Bowl 50 Box Square Pool Probability – Best and Worst Numbers to have

If you got suckered by one of your coworkers into one of these Super Bowl box pools, don’t worry, consider the money gone, anything you win will be a bonus.  There are 100 boxes in a typical pool, and if you’re playing for the grand prize, which typically is the final score, the odds of hitting one of the boxes SHOULD be 1%, but realistically the real odds spread out depending on the numbers.  The best numbers to have are going to be 0, 3 and 7, since most of the scoring are done in 3 or 7 point increments.

Super Bowl Scores

Let’s first take a look at the final scores for all the Super Bowl games in previous years:

GameDateWinning teamWinning ScoreLosing teamLosing Score
I1/15/1967Green Bay Packers35Kansas City Chiefs10
II1/14/1968Green Bay Packers33Oakland Raiders14
III1/12/1969New York Jets16Baltimore Colts7
IV1/11/1970Kansas City Chiefs23Minnesota Vikings7
V1/17/1971Baltimore Colts16Dallas Cowboys13
VI1/16/1972Dallas Cowboys24Miami Dolphins3
VII1/14/1973Miami Dolphins14Washington Redskins7
VIII1/13/1974Miami Dolphins24Minnesota Vikings7
IX1/12/1975Pittsburgh Steelers16Minnesota Vikings6
X1/18/1976Pittsburgh Steelers21Dallas Cowboys17
XI1/9/1977Oakland Raiders32Minnesota Vikings14
XII1/15/1978Dallas Cowboys27Denver Broncos10
XIII1/21/1979Pittsburgh Steelers35Dallas Cowboys31
XIV1/20/1980Pittsburgh Steelers31Los Angeles Rams19
XV1/25/1981Oakland Raiders27Philadelphia Eagles10
XVI1/24/1982San Francisco 49ers26Cincinnati Bengals21
XVII1/30/1983Washington Redskins27Miami Dolphins17
XVIII1/22/1984Los Angeles Raiders38Washington Redskins9
XIX1/20/1985San Francisco 49ers38Miami Dolphins16
XX1/26/1986Chicago Bears46New England Patriots10
XXI1/25/1987New York Giants39Denver Broncos20
XXII1/31/1988Washington Redskins42Denver Broncos10
XXIII1/22/1989San Francisco 49ers20Cincinnati Bengals16
XXIV1/28/1990San Francisco 49ers55Denver Broncos10
XXV1/27/1991New York Giants20Buffalo Bills19
XXVI1/26/1992Washington Redskins37Buffalo Bills24
XXVII1/31/1993Dallas Cowboys52Buffalo Bills17
XXVIII1/30/1994Dallas Cowboys30Buffalo Bills13
XXIX1/29/1995San Francisco 49ers49San Diego Chargers26
XXX1/28/1996Dallas Cowboys27Pittsburgh Steelers17
XXXI1/26/1997Green Bay Packers35New England Patriots21
XXXII1/25/1998Denver Broncos31Green Bay Packers24
XXXIII1/31/1999Denver Broncos34Atlanta Falcons19
XXXIV1/30/2000St. Louis Rams23Tennessee Titans16
XXXV1/28/2001Baltimore Ravens34New York Giants7
XXXVI2/3/2002New England Patriots20St. Louis Rams17
XXXVII1/26/2003Tampa Bay Buccaneers48Oakland Raiders21
XXXVIII2/1/2004New England Patriots32Carolina Panthers29
XXXIX2/6/2005New England Patriots24Philadelphia Eagles21
XL2/5/2006Pittsburgh Steelers21Seattle Seahawks10
XLI2/4/2007Indianapolis Colts29Chicago Bears17
XLII2/3/2008New York Giants17New England Patriots14
XLIII2/1/2009Pittsburgh Steelers27Arizona Cardinals23
XLIV2/7/2010New Orleans Saints31Indianapolis Colts17
XLV2/6/2011Green Bay Packers31Pittsburgh Steelers25
XLVI2/5/2012New York Giants21New England Patriots17
XLVII2/3/2013Baltimore Ravens34San Francisco 49ers31
XLVIII2/2/2014Seattle Seahawks43Denver Broncos8
XLIX2/1/2015New England Patriots28Seattle Seahawks24

Super Bowl 50 Box Square Pool Probability

Based on the 49 prior Super Bowl matchups, the two most common final scores ended with 4 (winner) and (7 loser), which happend 3 times, and also 1 (winner) and (7 loser), also happened 3 times.

super bowl box probabilities

Super Bowl Box Square Pool Probability Based on 2015 Regular Season Scores

But the sample size is so small with just 49 games, and most of those games were played in different eras, they definitely do not reflect the pace and strategies of current football games.  So to get a better perspective of football score box probabilities, let’s take a look at the odds from scores for the 2015 season, including 10 playoff games, making the sample size of 266 games.

As you can see from the table below, the best number to have is definitely number 0, and followed not too far behind are 3, 4, and 7.  The worst number to have by far would be the Debbie downer number 5.

Good luck and enjoy the big game!

super bowl box probabilities 2015