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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-06-18

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 44 47 23.56 48%
4 8 23 -48.64 26%
3 18 20 3.74 47%
2 26 28 4.95 48%
1 40 36 0.00 53%
Total 136 154 -16.39 47%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 3 2 -2.25 60%
 -200 to -250 17 7 2.05 71%
 -150 to -200 51 34 -5.59 60%
 +100 to -150 109 93 -5.27 54%
Underdogs 18 27 -5.07 40%
Total 198 163 -16.13 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
NY Yankees -108 5.4 5 8%
Chi. White Sox 190 2.63 5 6%
Arizona -155 4.65 3 3%
Washington 117 2.56 3 3%
Milwaukee -145 4.35 3 3%
Tampa Bay -103 2.06 2 2%
Minnesota 140 1.43 2 2%
Chi. Cubs 108 1.85 2 2%
Colorado -155 3.1 2 2%
LA Angels -105 2.1 2 2%
Baltimore 102 1.96 2 2%
Seattle 175 1.14 2 2%
Houston -120 2.4 2 2%
Miami -102 1.02 1 1%
Cincinnati 163 0.61 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Toronto -210
Texas -190
LA Dodgers -176
Colorado -155
Arizona -155
Cleveland -150
Milwaukee -145
NY Mets -127
Houston -120
Pittsburgh -118
St. Louis -112
NY Yankees -108
LA Angels -105
Tampa Bay -103
Miami -102

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