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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-07-26

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 93 120 -30.88 44%
4 32 45 -35.72 42%
3 45 54 -12.29 45%
2 67 73 5.71 48%
1 115 123 -11.93 48%
Total 352 415 -85.11 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 15 5 1.10 75%
 -200 to -250 40 23 -9.55 63%
 -150 to -200 124 75 -0.83 62%
 +100 to -150 242 215 -23.84 53%
Underdogs 39 60 -14.26 39%
Total 460 378 -47.38 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Houston -125 6.25 5 10%
Seattle 190 2.63 5 8%
Pittsburgh 130 3.85 5 7%
Chi. White Sox 205 2.44 5 5%
Oakland 152 3.29 5 5%
Atlanta 170 2.94 5 5%
Washington -124 6.2 5 5%
LA Angels 180 2.78 5 5%
Miami 185 2.16 4 4%
Kansas City 110 2.73 3 3%
Cincinnati 215 1.4 3 3%
Colorado 144 2.08 3 3%
Tampa Bay -140 2.8 2 2%
LA Dodgers -165 1.65 1 1%
NY Mets -116 1.16 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
NY Yankees -240
Chi. Cubs -225
Boston -210
Texas -205
Cleveland -200
Arizona -185
LA Dodgers -165
Toronto -162
St. Louis -154
Tampa Bay -140
Houston -125
Washington -124
NY Mets -116
Kansas City 110
Pittsburgh 130

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MLB Public Picks For 2017-07-26

EYO MLB Predictions 2017-07-26