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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-08-10

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 117 167 -89.55 41%
4 43 58 -29.01 43%
3 60 68 -4.89 47%
2 79 87 0.00 48%
1 140 149 -11.99 48%
Total 439 529 -135.44 45%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 23 7 3.80 77%
 -200 to -250 56 26 0.10 68%
 -150 to -200 158 98 -5.31 62%
 +100 to -150 288 266 -40.61 52%
Underdogs 44 73 -20.96 38%
Total 569 470 -62.98 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Detroit 144 3.47 5 11%
LA Angels 177 2.82 5 5%
Toronto 130 3.08 4 4%
Minnesota 147 2.04 3 3%
Tampa Bay 128 2.34 3 3%
Chi. White Sox 158 1.9 3 3%
Miami 136 2.21 3 3%
San Diego 130 1.54 2 2%
Arizona 170 1.18 2 2%
Philadelphia 136 1.47 2 2%
Kansas City 134 0.75 1 1%
Oakland -103 1.03 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Seattle -194
LA Dodgers -185
Houston -168
Milwaukee -157
NY Mets -146
Washington -146
St. Louis -144
Cincinnati -140
NY Yankees -140
Cleveland -138
Oakland -103
Detroit 144

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MLB Public Picks For 2017-08-10

EYO Parlay of the Day 2017-08-10