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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-08-11

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 118 168 -88.02 41%
4 44 58 -25.01 43%
3 63 69 1.90 48%
2 79 90 -4.19 47%
1 140 151 -13.77 48%
Total 444 536 -129.09 45%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 23 7 3.80 77%
 -200 to -250 56 26 0.10 68%
 -150 to -200 159 101 -9.50 61%
 +100 to -150 292 269 -40.42 52%
Underdogs 44 74 -21.65 37%
Total 574 477 -67.67 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

You need a login access to see these picks.  If you don’t already have a login, simply sign up for our EYO Insider Membership to get access to the picks below.

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Boston 122 4.1 5 7%
Tampa Bay 122 4.1 5 6%
NY Mets -107 5.35 5 5%
Miami 104 2.88 3 3%
LA Dodgers -310 9.3 3 3%
Cincinnati 175 1.71 3 3%
San Francisco 157 1.27 2 2%
Chi. White Sox 126 1.59 2 2%
Chi. Cubs 108 0.93 1 1%
Minnesota 115 0.87 1 1%
Oakland -105 1.05 1 1%
Seattle -116 1.16 1 1%
St. Louis -140 1.4 1 1%
Texas 100 1 1 1%
Pittsburgh 126 0.79 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
LA Dodgers -310
Milwaukee -190
Washington -167
St. Louis -140
Kansas City -136
Toronto -136
Cleveland -132
Detroit -125
Arizona -118
Seattle -116
Houston -110
NY Mets -107
Oakland -105
Miami 104
Boston 122

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WNBA Predictions and Injuries 2017-08-11

MLB Public Picks For 2017-08-11