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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-08-11

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 118 168 -88.02 41%
4 44 58 -25.01 43%
3 63 69 1.90 48%
2 79 90 -4.19 47%
1 140 151 -13.77 48%
Total 444 536 -129.09 45%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 23 7 3.80 77%
 -200 to -250 56 26 0.10 68%
 -150 to -200 159 101 -9.50 61%
 +100 to -150 292 269 -40.42 52%
Underdogs 44 74 -21.65 37%
Total 574 477 -67.67 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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