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MLB Computer Simulation Predictions 2017-08-18

We are monitoring computer simulation picks from fivethirtyeight.com.  In their own words on how they pick the games…

This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest. It updates after each game.

What they do is they provide probability of winning for each team each day according to their computer simulations.  In our opinion, there’s two ways to interpret these picks:

  1. Compare their probability to the actual odds of the game and find the perceived value.
  2. Take the pick “as is” and select the team with the higher probability as the selection.

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions Record

Value Pick Record (since 5/27/17)

Units W L Total Units %
5 126 181 -99.08 41%
4 47 63 -26.86 43%
3 73 79 -1.85 48%
2 87 98 -0.63 47%
1 157 165 -10.75 49%
Total 490 586 -139.17 46%

“As Is” Pick Record (since 5/22/17)

Odds W L Total Units %
 -250 or Greater 26 8 3.70 76%
 -200 to -250 61 27 2.90 69%
 -150 to -200 171 108 -9.45 61%
 +100 to -150 326 293 -35.40 53%
Underdogs 48 79 -22.15 38%
Total 632 515 -60.40 55%

MLB Computer Simulation Predictions

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Derived Value Picks

Here we take the computer simulation probability and compared to the actual odds, the further away from the actual odds, the more value to the pick (i.e. if computer simulation suggests 60% chance of winning and the actual odds suggests 55% change of winning, then there’s a perceived 5% value in taking the favorite in this scenario).  We give higher units to higher value plays, and the units are capped at 5 units.

538 Value Pick Odds Risk Units To Win Units Value
Kansas City 190 2.63 5 6%
Atlanta -117 5.85 5 5%
Minnesota 107 3.74 4 4%
LA Angels 120 3.33 4 4%
Seattle 115 3.48 4 4%
Boston -120 3.6 3 3%
Milwaukee 157 1.27 2 2%
Toronto 150 1.33 2 2%
LA Dodgers -200 2 1 1%
Houston -210 2.1 1 1%
Washington -210 2.1 1 1%
Philadelphia 147 0.68 1 1%
Chi. White Sox 185 0.54 1 1%
St. Louis -119 1.19 1 1%
Miami -102 1.02 1 1%

“As Is” Picks

These picks are more straight forward, basically which ever team has the higher probability of winning according to the computer simulation would be the selection.  We make all picks as 1 unit plays.

538 As Is Pick Odds
Houston -210
Cleveland -210
Washington -210
Texas -205
LA Dodgers -200
Colorado -167
Chi. Cubs -160
San Francisco -157
Baltimore -130
Tampa Bay -125
Boston -120
St. Louis -119
Atlanta -117
NY Mets -108
Minnesota 107

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MLB Public Picks For 2017-08-18

EYO Parlay of the Day 2017-08-18