Bill Simmons and Joe House’s Week 6 NFL Picks 2025
Onto week 6…
Bill Simmons NFL Picks Record
2025 Season: 20-20 (50%)
- Week 1: 1-4
- Week 2: 3-2
- Week 3: 1-4
- Week 4: 3-2
- Week 5: 2-3
- Week 6: 4-1
- Week 7: 3-2
- Week 8: 3-2
- Week 9:
Bill Simmons Week 6 NFL Picks 2025
DENVER BRONCOS –6.5 VS. NEW YORK JETS (LONDON GAME)
This one belonged to Chris Vernon. His argument was simple: the Jets are “the worst team in football” and the Broncos are way better than their record suggests. Denver, he noted, should realistically be 4–1—one kick, one bad flag, and one meltdown away from a great start. Meanwhile, the Jets can’t block, can’t force turnovers, and can’t stop the run. Vernon added that in international games with a favorite of six points or more, the favorite has covered 12 of the last 15 times. “They’re going to maul them,” he said flatly. Simmons hated the 9:30 a.m. kickoff, House worried about the low total, but the group rode with Denver anyway.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS –2.5 VS. DETROIT LIONS
Simmons couldn’t believe this line. “Are the Chiefs really going to go 2–4? Would the league ever let that happen?” The Lions have been a feel-good story, but the hosts dug into the details—wins over a zombie Ravens team, the broken Browns, and a Cincinnati club in quarterback chaos. House pointed out that Mahomes is 19-3 against the spread when favored by less than a field goal, and the Chiefs are notorious for rebounding after gut-punch losses. “This is a get-right game,” Simmons said. “The NFL’s not letting Mahomes lose another one.”
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3 VS. DALLAS COWBOYS
Maybe the most contentious pick of the week. Vernon, a lifelong Cowboys fan, begged them not to take it. Simmons, however, jumped on the humid Charlotte home-dog angle, noting Dallas’s rash of injuries on both lines and their defensive collapse the past few weeks. “You just said your defense stinks!” Simmons shot back after Verno’s protest. Carolina has quietly covered four of its last five home games dating back to last season and is 2-0 outright at home in 2025. House added that Bryce Young’s improved comfort in the pocket gives them a fighting chance. “It’s a field-goal game,” Simmons insisted. “Take the points.”
ATLANTA FALCONS +4.5 VS. BUFFALO BILLS
House called it one of his favorite plays of the week; Vernon called it “why you guys lose.” The debate centered on whether Atlanta’s home field and run game could punish a Bills defense missing multiple linemen. Simmons liked the situational spot—Buffalo has looked flat for three straight weeks, and Atlanta’s ground attack ranks top-10 in efficiency. “They hang around in these games,” he said. Vernon countered that betting the Falcons is “the gambler’s version of poking yourself in the eye,” but House overruled him. “Buffalo hasn’t played a full 60 yet. This is the week they get caught.”
PARLAY: COLTS MONEYLINE + PATRIOTS +1.5 (–120)
This week’s signature Ringer 107 two-teamer mixed House’s logic with Simmons’s superstition. They both love the Colts at home against an injury-riddled Cardinals team that just fined its coach for shoving a player, and they paired it with the Patriots catching a point and a half in New Orleans. Simmons argued the Pats’ run defense would neutralize the Saints’ only real weapon, forcing Spencer Rattler into mistakes. “We’ll win one ugly, lose one stupid, and push the other,” House joked, “but maybe this parlay hits.”
WEEK 6 CARD
- Broncos –6.5 vs. Jets (London)
- Chiefs –2.5 vs. Lions
- Panthers +3 vs. Cowboys
- Falcons +4.5 vs. Bills
- Parlay: Colts ML + Patriots +1.5 (–120)
It’s a card that mixes principle, parody, and pure faith in regression. Simmons summed it up perfectly at the end: “If we just get normal luck—just normal luck—we’re 4–1 this week. I’m telling you, this is the week the gambling gods flip.”