Bill Simmons and Joe House’s Week 5 NFL Picks 2025

Bill Simmons and Joe House finally steadied themselves in Week 4, cashing three of their five plays after a rocky start to the season. The Jaguars and Patriots came through as clean, convincing winners, while Atlanta rewarded their faith with a strong bounce-back. But the Vikings failed in Ireland, and the parlay, always a dangerous move, collapsed with Green Bay unable to deliver the finishing punch. That left them at 3-2 on the week, their best showing yet but still not the breakout they’ve been chasing.

At 8-12 overall through four weeks, the climb back to .500 is within reach but will need to a big week!

Onto week 5…

Bill Simmons NFL Picks Record

2025 Season: 20-20 (50%)

Week 1: 1-4
Week 2: 3-2
Week 3: 1-4
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 2-3
Week 6: 4-1
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 3-2
Week 9:

Bill Simmons Week 5 NFL Picks 2025

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS –3 VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Seattle sits quietly atop the NFL’s advanced metrics board, first in DVOA and elite across the board defensively—first against the run, fourth in QB hits, and second in yards per play allowed. Tampa, meanwhile, comes limping into the Pacific Northwest missing several defensive backs and struggling to block for Baker Mayfield. Simmons called this an “auto play,” noting that the juice (-124) is already creeping toward a move to 3.5. House agreed: “If Baker beats us, fine, I’ll tip my cap.” Seattle’s defense looks real, and this is the week national audiences start to realize it.

HOUSTON TEXANS –1.5 AT BALTIMORE RAVENS

This is a bet against everything Baltimore has left standing. With Lamar Jackson’s status murky and half the defense in the trainer’s room, Houston gets a prime “prove-it” moment. Simmons likes the Texans’ new balance—CJ Stroud taking care of the ball, a revitalized ground game behind Woody Marks, and a defense that’s been solid in every outing. House backed the call: “They’ve lost close games to playoff teams. This is their get-right spot.” Baltimore’s reputation is still pricing this line, but Houston looks healthier, hungrier, and ready to take it.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS –3 AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (MONDAY NIGHT)

This one was easy for both of them: Patrick Mahomes versus Trevor Lawrence isn’t a debate they’re willing to bet against. Simmons dubbed Jacksonville the “good bad team,” capable of beating lesser opponents but outclassed when the step up in competition hits. The Chiefs’ offense is beginning to round into form, Rashee Rice returns in Week 7, and their defense continues to create takeaways. “We’re grabbing the number before it moves to 3.5,” Simmons said. A classic “trust the champion” play.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +8.5 AT BUFFALO BILLS

The Patriots’ offense is far better than its reputation, and Simmons—watching every snap—thinks Drake May and Mike Vrabel have been holding a few wrinkles for this game. Buffalo’s defense is banged up, weak against the run, and has looked less dominant with each passing week. House noted the high total (49.5) as a tell that Vegas expects points from both sides, calling the line “a point and a half too high.” Simmons added, “This feels like 33–27 or 36–30—Pats hang around, maybe even sneak a backdoor cover.” Both also liked the over, calling it a sneaky Sunday night shootout.

HOUSE SPECIAL: COLTS–EAGLES MONEYLINE PARLAY (–107)

Every week, House gets one personal pick, and this time he went with a square but confident double—Colts moneyline against the Raiders paired with Eagles moneyline over Denver. “I don’t care if it’s square,” House laughed. “Let Bo Nix stick it in my face, but I’ve got to see it first.” The Colts are a home play against a fading Raiders team, and the Eagles simply don’t lose when Jalen Hurts starts and finishes. It’s a stabilizer pick meant to counterbalance some of Simmons’s volatility elsewhere.

The Week 5 card, in order:

Seahawks –3 vs. Buccaneers
Texans –1.5 at Ravens
Chiefs –3 at Jaguars
Patriots +8.5 at Bills
Colts–Eagles moneyline parlay (–107)