Bill Simmons and Joe House’s Week 7 NFL Picks 2025
Onto week 7…
Bill Simmons NFL Picks Record
2025 Season: 20-20 (50%)
- Week 1: 1-4
- Week 2: 3-2
- Week 3: 1-4
- Week 4: 3-2
- Week 5: 2-3
- Week 6: 4-1
- Week 7: 3-2
- Week 8: 3-2
- Week 9:
Bill Simmons Week 7 NFL Picks 2025
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +5.5 AT CHICAGO BEARS
House jumped on this immediately, calling it “a ridiculous number.” His logic was simple: the Bears have won two straight fluky one-point games and are being treated like an actual football team. The Saints, meanwhile, are at least competent — physical up front, improving every week with Spencer Rattler settling in. The Bears rank 32nd in yards per play allowed, 31st against the run, and still can’t rush the passer. “Pour some settle-down juice on the Bears,” House said. Simmons agreed. “They just beat your team on a lucky turnover, and now they’re laying five and a half? No chance.” The Saints defense should bully Chicago, and the number felt inflated by two to three points.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS –1.5 VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Both guys called this “the Justin Herbert MVP game.” The Colts’ secondary is shredded by injuries, and after watching Jacoby Brissett torch them for 300 yards, Simmons had one conclusion: if Brissett can do that, Herbert might throw for 400. Joe Alt and Khalil Mack returning from injury only added to the conviction. House noted that the public was heavily on the Colts — a classic trap setup. “Please, please bet Indy,” he laughed. The Chargers haven’t been trustworthy this season, but this felt like the right matchup for Herbert to finally take over.
CAROLINA PANTHERS –1.5 AT NEW YORK JETS
Simmons called it a “tic-tac game,” but he finally believed Bryce Young could win one on the road. Carolina’s defense ranks top-10 against the run, while the Jets are dead last in passing offense and turnover margin. With Garrett Wilson out and the Jets’ line in shambles, this was more of a bet against New York than for Carolina. House was hesitant — “Let them show us first,” he said — but Simmons pushed it through. The Panthers’ offense has quietly found rhythm with young receivers emerging, and this was their chance to reach 4–3 and enter the “hey-maybe-they’re-not-terrible” zone.
PARLAY: CHIEFS ML × PATRIOTS ML × VIKINGS +7.5
This week’s “Ringer 107 Special” was a three-teamer built around teams they actually trust — or at least pretend to. Chiefs moneyline against the Raiders was the anchor. “No way the NFL lets Mahomes go 2–4,” Simmons said. They paired it with the Patriots moneyline against Tennessee in Mike Vrabel’s revenge game, banking on Drake May and the league’s easiest remaining schedule. The final leg: Vikings teased to +7.5 against an Eagles team with no pass rush, no secondary, and a hurt quarterback. “The Eagles could be two and four,” House said. “They’ve told us who they are for six weeks.” With Minnesota’s improved offense and linebackers returning, this felt like a perfect home-dog spot.
CLEVELAND BROWNS –2.5 VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS
Their favorite pick of the entire year — and it wasn’t close. The weather forecast in Cleveland called for rain, wind up to 50 mph, and misery for any team that relies on timing routes. The Dolphins rank dead last against the run and now faced a Browns team that loves nothing more than to pound the ball 40 times behind that defense. “Tua in bad weather is a godsend,” Simmons said. “Miles Garrett’s going to be in his lap all game.” House piled on: “Cleveland at home with that defense is magnificent.” They called it the “Judkins Breakout Game” and joked about entering the same pick five times. Both agreed — this was the hammer.
WEEK 7 CARD
- Browns –2.5 vs Dolphins
- Saints +5.5 at Bears
- Chargers –1.5 vs Colts
- Panthers –1.5 at Jets
- Parlay: Chiefs moneyline + Patriots moneyline + Vikings (+7.5) vs Eagles