Bill Simmons had an up-and-down Week 2 with his picks, but overall he finished with a winning record.

He started strong with the Patriots +1.5, as New England outlasted the Dolphins 33-27 in a divisional matchup that wasn’t decided until the final minutes.

He also nailed his Falcons +3.5 call, with Atlanta not just covering but winning outright in convincing fashion 22-6 over the Vikings.

Not everything went his way, though. His Broncos −2.5 pick fell apart in Indianapolis, where Denver lost 29-28 in a controversial finish that wouldn’t have covered the spread regardless.

The Jets +6.5 turned into another loss, with Buffalo dominating from start to finish in a 30-10 blowout that was never close.

Simmons closed the week with a parlay that hit big: Cardinals moneyline and Eagles +4.5. Arizona held off Carolina 27-22 to cash the first leg, while Philadelphia went into Kansas City and pulled off a 20-17 win, easily covering the +4.5.

That made Simmons’ official record for Week 2 3-2, with the parlay adding some extra shine to what was ultimately a solid performance.

Bill Simmons NFL Picks Record

2025 Season: 20-20 (50%)

• Week 1: 1-4
• Week 2: 3-2
• Week 3: 1-4
• Week 4: 3-2
• Week 5: 2-3
• Week 6: 4-1
• Week 7: 3-2
• Week 8: 3-2
• Week 9:

Bill Simmons Week 3 NFL Picks 2025

Cowboys at Bears, pick Dallas -1.5

This number flipped fast from Chicago minus 1.5 to Dallas minus 1.5, and the movement tells the story. Chicago has shown almost nothing that travels from one drive to the next. The secondary is shredded, the run game lacks teeth, and after the first script the offense becomes a coin flip to complete even routine throws. Dallas, on the other hand, can throw with rhythm and finish drives with the most bankable kicker edge on the slate. In a near pick range, take the best unit on the field, which is the Cowboys passing game. The handicap is simple. Chicago’s defense just let Russell Wilson look reborn and now faces a cleaner operation that can create easy layups on early downs. Even a middling Dallas pass rush should be enough to get Chicago behind the sticks. If this turns into a field position grind, Dallas has the only trustworthy leg in the matchup. The number is short enough to live with variance and late weirdness.

Texans at Jaguars, pick Jacksonville -1.5

Small favorite at home in Florida humidity with a defense that can pressure and an offense that has been moving the ball between the 20s. That is the formula. Houston’s line has been leaky for two straight weeks and the run fits are soft. Tampa ran it down their throats with motion and misdirection, and Jacksonville can copy that page. The Jags left points on the table the last two games with drops and red zone sloppiness, but the underlying structure produced mid-20s anyway. A kitchen sink week for a roster that heard noise for six days is a nice setup. If Jacksonville establishes any downhill run element, their play action shot menu opens and the pass rush can hunt on the other side. At this short spread, ask the better offensive line and deeper skill group at home to close.

Steelers at Patriots, pick New England +1.5

Pittsburgh’s defensive tackle rate and tackling metrics have trended the wrong way since late last season, and key names are banged up. That matters because New England’s left side is finally blocking with some cohesion and the backs look spry. The Patriots offense showed signs of life against Miami and now faces a defense that can be pushed around in the run game and stressed by simple third and medium concepts. New England also brings a real interior rush this season, the exact thing that disrupts veteran quarterbacks who want clean launch points. The path is clear. Shorten the game with the run, pressure the pocket with four, avoid giveaways, and make special teams count. As a home dog in a coin flip, New England has the trenches edge and the cleaner game script.

Cardinals at 49ers, pick San Francisco -2.5

Arizona is hanging on with duct tape in the defensive backfield and is now down to backups to the backups. San Francisco does not require perfection under center to win this game by a field goal. Expect Shanahan to lean into the basic Niners template. Run game on schedule, boot action, a couple deep crossers for explosives, and a pass rush that makes Arizona play from behind the sticks. With the rookie along the Niners front popping early and the system answers baked in, this is a tidy handle business spot. The number is small enough that a conservative fourth quarter still covers.

Falcons at Panthers, Chiefs at Giants, two-leg moneyline parlay

• Falcons moneyline
• Chiefs moneyline

The construction here prioritizes win equity over style points. Atlanta has too many ways to out-talent Carolina and a clean path to 20. The Panthers’ late touchdowns last week were misleading garbage time, and their offense needs multiple short fields to threaten. Pair that with the Chiefs simply not starting 0 and 3 against a Giants team stepping up in class. Kansas City’s defense is the best group New York has faced by a distance, and even if the Chiefs offense is in search mode, they should find enough chain-moving answers. The alternative was a Seahawks alt spread, but the final card backed Mahomes and Reid to steady the ship.

Quick hits on line value and why these five made the cut

• Small numbers, big levers. Cowboys minus 1.5 and Jaguars minus 1.5 ask competent teams to win, not dominate
• Patriots plus 1.5 leverages a live home dog profile against a defense that cannot tackle cleanly
• 49ers minus 2.5 fades Arizona’s attrition in the secondary with the league’s most plug-and-play scheme
• Falcons and Chiefs moneylines avoid the Vegas zone and reward simple game scripts

Noteworthy stayaways and near misses

Chiefs at Giants, spread minus 6
The temptation was real to lay it, but six asks Kansas City to win with margin while the receiver room is still searching for an identity. Better to fold them into a moneyline parlay than trust a two-score close.

Washington minus 3.5 vs Raiders
Short rest Raiders after a physical Monday night made Washington interesting at the opener minus 3, but quarterback uncertainty killed the angle. Without clarity, pass.

Vikings minus 3 vs Bengals
Jake Browning versus Carson Wentz is the kind of chaos that looks fun until the third tipped pass. Minnesota’s offense ranks 32nd in EPA and Flores can confuse a backup, but trusting either side is paying a juice premium for pain.

Chargers minus 2.5 vs Broncos
Los Angeles looked better on the scoreboard than on tape. Geno sailed throws and Khalil Mack got banged up. Denver invented ways to lose last week, yes, but the game feels kitchen sinky for the Broncos. Stay away tax applied.

Ravens minus 5.5 vs Lions
Baltimore is the right side qualitatively, but the number lives in the dreaded middle. Injuries to Van Noy and a dinged secondary raised enough flags to move the Ravens from straight bet to parlay candidate, then off entirely when the Chiefs ML leg became available.

Seahawks minus 7.5 vs Saints
Another Vegas zone problem. Seattle can smother a rookie, yet asking for more than a touchdown with an offense that still sputters in quarters is an invitation to a backdoor. If betting Seattle, consider an alternate number for blowout or bring it down in a teaser format, but it did not make this card.

Packers minus 7.5 at Browns
Green Bay earned Juggernaut whispers, but Cleveland’s defense is real and keeps them inside one score even while their offense stumbles. Preferred angle was Packers moneyline in a parlay, not the spread. Ultimately passed.

Rams plus 3.5 at Eagles
Live dog energy. The Rams can rush four, cap the run, and force Philadelphia to prove the downfield passing game exists right now. The number would have been a play at plus 4.5. At plus 3.5 it stayed in lean land.

Jets plus 6.5 at Buccaneers
The line is inflated after Buffalo thumped New York. Tyrod Taylor’s higher floor and Tampa’s ravaged offensive line make the dog attractive at the number. The problem is trusting the Jets to reward a smart number with smart football. Pass and grimace.

Titans plus 4.5 at Colts
Model people will land here. We will not. Even with the spread a point and a half high relative to our make, refusal to back this coaching staff is its own edge.

Bill Simmons Week 3 Picks Recap

• Cowboys -1.5 at Bears
• Jaguars -1.5 vs Texans
• Patriots +1.5 vs Steelers
• 49ers -2.5 vs Cardinals
• Parlay Falcons moneyline with Chiefs moneyline