Bill Simmons and Joe House’s Week 8 NFL Picks 2025

Bill Simmons and Joe House escaped Week 7 with a winning record, going 3–2 and finally stacking back-to-back profitable weeks. The Browns and Panthers handled business with ease, and their parlay of Chiefs, Patriots, and Vikings +7.5 cruised home without stress. It wasn’t flawless—the Saints flopped, and the Chargers let them down again—but after a messy September, the board is finally breaking their way.

At 17–18 on the season, the guys are right on the doorstep of .500, and the confidence is building. As Simmons joked, “We just need one 4–1 week and we’re officially back.”

Onto week 8…

Bill Simmons NFL Picks Record

2025 Season: 20-20 (50%)

• Week 1: 1-4
• Week 2: 3-2
• Week 3: 1-4
• Week 4: 3-2
• Week 5: 2-3
• Week 6: 4-1
• Week 7: 3-2
• Week 8: 3-2
• Week 9:

Bill Simmons Week8 NFL Picks 2025

Week 8 Picks Summary

• Falcons –7.5 vs Dolphins: Atlanta is dominant at home, and Miami’s run defense can’t handle Bijan Robinson.
• Texans –1.5 vs 49ers: Houston’s defense is elite, and the Niners don’t need this game on the road.
• Cowboys +3.5 at Broncos: Dak Prescott is in control, and Dallas has backdoor potential if they trail late.
• Packers –3 at Steelers: Pittsburgh’s defense gives up big plays; this is Green Bay’s breakout moment.
• Parlay: Colts –1.5 + Patriots ML + Ravens ML (–117) — three teams with strong matchup and motivation edges.

Falcons –7.5 vs Dolphins

Simmons and House opened their card by riding Atlanta at home, one of their favorite setups all year. The Falcons have a top-tier rush attack built around Bijan Robinson and a defense that generates pressure in waves. Miami, on the other hand, ranks near the bottom against the run and struggles to keep Tua upright. The guys joked that “betting against Mixtape Mike McDaniel” has become a weekly tradition—Atlanta’s balanced approach and home-field edge make this one feel like a blowout waiting to happen.

Texans –1.5 vs 49ers

This was House’s favorite bet of the week: trust the Houston defense in a “kitchen-sink” spot at home. The Texans’ front seven has become one of the league’s most disciplined units, and C.J. Stroud is still dangerous when given clean pockets. San Francisco enters the week battered, duct-taped together on defense, and likely to treat this as a letdown game. Simmons summed it up: “They don’t need this one—Houston does.”

Cowboys +3.5 at Broncos

The duo sees Dallas as one of the NFL’s most undervalued teams. Dak Prescott has quietly played like a top-three quarterback this year, while Denver continues to win ugly behind Bo Nix. Simmons pointed out that this line implies the teams are even—which he called “nonsense.” The Cowboys’ offense can strike quickly, and with the hook at +3.5, even a late score keeps this live. It’s a value play with real upside if Dak stays hot.

Packers –3 at Steelers

This was their “Sunday Night Zag.” Everyone loves Mike Tomlin as a home dog, but Simmons and House think this Steelers team is smoke and mirrors. The defense gives up explosives, the offense is sputtering, and Jordan Love’s deep ball could flip the game early. They expect this to be the week Green Bay reenters the NFC conversation. “Every season has a ‘Whoa, that team’ game,” Simmons said. “This feels like Green Bay’s turn.”

Parlay: Colts –1.5 + Patriots ML + Ravens ML (–117)

Their final pick ties together three confident reads. Indianapolis should bully Tennessee in the trenches and win comfortably by a field goal. The Patriots, at home against a lifeless Cleveland offense, only need to survive by one point. And the Ravens, in a “must-win or else” spot, get healthy and face a reeling Chicago team. House called it his “best bet of the week,” noting that Baltimore’s run game packages will pound the Bears into submission.