Bill Simmons and Joe House’s Week 4 NFL Picks 2025

Week 3 was a gut punch. The card went 1–4, with only Jacksonville covering in a gritty win over Houston. Everything else broke the wrong way. Dallas was never in it against Chicago, the Patriots fizzled against Pittsburgh, San Francisco eked out a one-point win that left them short of the 2.5 spread, and the Falcons ruined the parlay by getting blanked in Carolina even though Kansas City handled its business. After two competitive weeks, this one felt like a regression that stings.

Onto week 4…

Bill Simmons NFL Picks Record

2025 Season: 20-20 (50%)

• Week 1: 1-4
• Week 2: 3-2
• Week 3: 1-4
• Week 4: 3-2
• Week 5: 2-3
• Week 6: 4-1
• Week 7: 3-2
• Week 8: 3-2
• Week 9:

Bill Simmons Week 4 NFL Picks 2025

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3.5 VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The Niners are banged up: Nick Bosa, Drake Jackson, and Jauan Jennings all dealing with injuries, while Brock Purdy is less than 100 percent. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has shown a defense that creates turnovers and an offense that moves the ball—if not always finishing drives. Simmons thinks the Jags should already be 3–0. Both he and House like them outright in what feels like a trap line.

ATLANTA FALCONS +1.5 VS. WASHINGTON

Atlanta is coming off a bad loss to Carolina but ranks top-five defensively against the pass. Washington’s secondary is decimated, and their offense just hasn’t looked sharp. At home, Desmond Ridder has historically played better, and Simmons believes Arthur Smith will lean hard on Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. House admitted it hurts to pick against his team, but the numbers point to a Falcons bounce-back.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS –1.5 VS. PITTSBURGH (IN IRELAND)

Yes, Carson Wentz is under center for Minnesota, and yes, the game kicks off at 6:30 AM PT. But Simmons and House are undeterred. Pittsburgh should be 0–3, and Aaron Rodgers looks immobile and lost behind a bad line. Minnesota’s blitz packages should feast, and Jordan Addison’s return adds a weapon. “It frightens me how much I like the Vikings,” Simmons admitted, but both agreed this is a strong play.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS –5.5 VS. CAROLINA PANTHERS

The Pats dominated the Steelers statistically last week but lost on turnovers. Simmons and McShay both think this is an improving roster. Carolina, meanwhile, ranks bottom-two in sacks, QB hits, and hurries. Christian Gonzalez’s return boosts New England’s secondary, and the pass rush should rattle Bryce Young. House: “If they can’t win this one by a touchdown, the season’s going to be awful.”

PARLAY: PACKERS –2.5 VS. COWBOYS + CHIEFS ALT LINE +7.5 VS. RAVENS

Dallas is without CeeDee Lamb, and Micah Parsons alone can’t cover up a weak defense. Simmons likes Green Bay’s ability to light them up. As for Kansas City, Mahomes and Andy Reid rarely lose by margin at Arrowhead. Baltimore’s offense is explosive, but its defense has collapsed late in games. Taking the Chiefs up to +7.5 feels like free insurance.

THE FIVE-TEAM CARD

• Packers –2.5 / Chiefs +7.5 parlay
• Jaguars +3.5 vs. 49ers
• Falcons +1.5 vs. Commanders
• Vikings –1.5 vs. Steelers (Ireland)
• Patriots –5.5 vs. Panthers