Colin Cowherd’s Blazin’ 5 Picks: NFL Week 1 in 2025

Colin Cowherd’s Blazin’ 5 kicks off NFL Week One with bold underdog plays and smart contrarian angle.

Blazing 5 Record

2025 Season: 24-16 (60%)

Week 1: 3-2
Week 2: 2-3
Week 3: 1-4
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-2
Week 6: 4-1
Week 7: 4-1
Week 8: 4-1
Week 9:

Past Records

2024: 30-47-2 (39.0%)
2023: 45-35-5 (56.3%)
2022: 44-37-4 (54.3%)
2021: 39-47 (45.3%)
2020: 40-42-2 (48.8%)
2019: 42-41-3 (50.6%)
2018: 43-33-2 (57.7%)
2017: 43-29-3 (59.7%)
2016: 44-33-3 (57.1%)

Colin Cowherd Week 1 2025 Blazing 5

Giants +6.5 at Commanders — Washington wins close, but New York covers behind a strong defensive line.
Jets +3 vs Steelers — Cowherd calls for the outright upset, Jets win 24-20.
Seahawks +2.5 vs 49ers — Seattle’s home-field edge and Niners’ injuries tilt this one to the Seahawks.
Packers -2.5 vs Lions — His “bet of the weekend,” Green Bay wins behind Jordan Love’s strong finish to 2024.
Texans at Rams Under 43.5 — Both offenses shaky with line issues, expects a defensive, low-scoring game.

Giants +6.5 at Commanders

Cowherd opens with a classic week one underdog. He points out that at least one team catching six or more points has won outright in week one nearly every season, and the Giants fit that mold. They played nine one-score games last year, and both matchups with Washington came down to the wire. Add in Malik Nabers as a new matchup problem and a defensive line featuring Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence, and Abdul Carter, and you’ve got a team built to hang around.

Washington may be coming off a great season, but their defense was shaky under Dan Quinn, particularly on the back end. With Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel still needing time to gel, the Commanders don’t look like a finished product. Cowherd expects Washington to win, but not cover.

Pick: Giants +6.5
Prediction: Commanders 27, Giants 23

Jets +3 vs Steelers

This is Cowherd’s favorite dog of the week. He highlights that the Jets held fourth-quarter leads in six of their twelve losses last year — meaning they weren’t far away. Now they’ve got a quarterback who can move, extend plays, and knows Pittsburgh’s personnel from his college days.

On the other hand, Pittsburgh has been gutted. Quarterback gone, running back gone, top receiver gone, and turnover at left tackle. That’s a lot of new pieces for a defense-first culture trying to figure it out in week one. He also points out that Aaron Rodgers has lost his last three week one starts, looking rusty in each, which adds to his skepticism of the Steelers as road favorites.

Cowherd calls for the outright upset.

Pick: Jets +3 (Moneyline play)
Prediction: Jets 24, Steelers 20

Seahawks +2.5 vs 49ers

This one is pure home-field advantage. Seattle has the best home winning percentage since Lumen Field opened in 2002, including a 9-1 record in week one home games. They closed strong last year, winning six of their final eight after the bye, and now return with upgraded coordinators and a plan to pound the ball with rookie running back Grayson Zable.

Meanwhile, San Francisco limps in. Christian McCaffrey is banged up, Brandon Aiyuk is out, Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga are gone, and they were just 1-5 in the division and 2-6 on the road last year. Their red-zone defense ranked 31st, a glaring weakness.

Cowherd sees Sam Darnold as an upgrade over Brock Purdy in terms of athleticism, but not enough to overcome the environment in Seattle.

Pick: Seahawks +2.5
Prediction: Seahawks 24, 49ers 23

Packers -2.5 vs Lions

Cowherd doesn’t hesitate here, calling it his “bet of the weekend.” He thinks Green Bay is the team entering its prime. Last season, they were the only team top five in both offense and defense. Jordan Love quietly finished strong — nine touchdowns and no interceptions in his final seven games — and he looks ready to make the leap.

Detroit, meanwhile, lost both coordinators. Dan Campbell has not been reliable as an underdog (12-21-1 ATS). And while Jared Goff thrives when surrounded by Sean McVay or Ben Johnson, history shows he dips without elite play callers. On the road in Green Bay, Cowherd isn’t buying them.

Pick: Packers -2.5
Prediction: Packers 28, Lions 24

Texans at Rams — Under 43.5

Cowherd closes with a totals play. The Texans ranked 19th in scoring last season, the Rams 20th. Both offensive lines are dealing with issues. Stafford’s back remains a problem, and Houston’s line is full of new faces.

Defensively, the Rams’ front is filthy and improving, while Houston dominated mostly against its own division last year. Factor in a first-time play caller for the Texans and you get what Cowherd calls “a very low-scoring game.”

Pick: Under 43.5
Prediction: Rams 21, Texans 17

Other Notes from the Week

Cowherd stressed that week one always delivers a surprise upset, usually from a big underdog. That’s why he leaned Giants and Seahawks in particular.
He flagged Aaron Rodgers’ recent week one history as a red flag for the Steelers pick — Rodgers is 0-3 in his last three openers.
Injuries played a big role in his Seahawks pick, with McCaffrey’s health looming large.
He emphasized how stability and maturity matter in chaotic environments, segueing into a long reflection on Dak Prescott’s composure during the Cowboys-Eagles game. He sees Dak as the “grown-up in the room,” a stabilizing figure in a franchise defined by noise.

Cowherd went heavy on underdogs this week, with three outright upset calls and one under total. Only the Packers as a short favorite stand out as his “bet of the weekend.” Week one is never easy, but he’s betting on chaos, home fields, and maturity.