After losing last week to move his overall record to minus $70,000 on the season, Bill Simmons laid out his “Million Dollar Picks” for Week 4 of the NFL season. He outlined several matchups he is avoiding this week before making his picks, betting $200,000 on each game.

Bill Simmons Week 4 Million Dollar Picks Summary

• Patriots +6.5 at Cowboys
• Colts -1.5 vs Rams
• Steelers -3 vs Texans
• Browns -2.5 vs Ravens
• 3 team teaser
  • Chiefs vs Jets (teased to -2)
  • Eagles vs Commanders (teased to -1)
  • Dolphins vs Bills (teased to +10.5)

“Luca Brasi” Fishy Line Pick

• Simmons LEANED toward Raiders beating the Chargers outright this week. Yes, he openly hates the Chargers and does not hide it. He literally picks against the Chargers every week and talks smack about them each week with Cousin Sal, where of course, Cousin Sal just nods along and goes with whatever Simmons says.

Bill Simmons Unleashes His Million Dollar Picks for NFL Week 4

Patriots +6.5 at Cowboys

Simmons thinks this line should be 3 or 3.5 because of uncertainty with Dallas’s offensive line. He doesn’t like Dallas in the red zone at all and thinks the Patriots defense can contain them. Getting an extra 3 points of value, Simmons predicts the Patriots lose a close game they lead late.

Colts -1.5 vs Rams

With the Rams missing their left tackle, their top heavy roster struggles as soon as they lose guys. Simmons likes what he’s seen from the Colts and thinks they can win the AFC South at 9-8.

Steelers -3 vs Texans

Simmons likes the Texans but thinks their big win over Jacksonville last week was fluky. He doesn’t believe the Steelers are as bad as they’ve shown, and thinks their defense can win this game alone.

Browns -2.5 vs Ravens

Simmons believes the Browns defense could be elite, but Vegas doesn’t fully buy in yet. With the banged up Ravens missing key offensive pieces, Simmons sees the Browns dominating at home in a statement game.

Chiefs vs Jets, Eagles vs Commanders, Dolphins vs Bills (3-team, 7.5 point teaser)

Simmons teased the Chiefs down to just needing to win, the Eagles down to just needing to win or lose by less than 1, and the Dolphins down to just needing to lose by 3 or less. He thinks the Chiefs and Eagles win outright, while getting over a touchdown of value with the Dolphins against a Bills team that hasn’t faced a real offense yet.