Colin Cowherd’s Blazin’ 5 Picks: NFL Week 16 in 2025

Cowherd week 16 picks

Blazing 5 Record

2025 Season: 52-37-1 (58.4%)

Week 1: 3-2
Week 2: 2-3
Week 3: 1-4
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-2
Week 6: 4-1
Week 7: 4-1
Week 8: 4-1
Week 9: 2-3
Week 10: 3-2
Week 11: 5-0
Week 12: 2-3
Week 13: 2-3
Week 14: 3-2
Week 15: 2-3
Week 16: 4-0-1
Week 17: 2-3
Week 18: 3-2

Past Records

2025: 52-37-1 (58.4%)
2024: 30-47-2 (39.0%)
2023: 45-35-5 (56.3%)
2022: 44-37-4 (54.3%)
2021: 39-47 (45.3%)
2020: 40-42-2 (48.8%)
2019: 42-41-3 (50.6%)
2018: 43-33-2 (57.7%)
2017: 43-29-3 (59.7%)
2016: 44-33-3 (57.1%)

Colin Cowherd Week 16 2025 Blazing 5

• Bears -1.5 vs Packers
• Giants +3 points vs Vikings
• Bengals -4.5 vs Dolphins
• Patriots +3 vs Ravens
• 49ers -5.5 at Colts

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears Bears -1.5

This is a health, roster, and trend-based play that favors Chicago. The Bears are 8–2 over their last ten games, with the only losses coming on the road. At home, their defense jumps to a different level, ranking sixth in the league, and the offense plays cleaner football. Caleb Williams has one or fewer giveaways in all 14 starts, which is critical in a short spread game. Chicago simply does not hand opponents free possessions.

The run game has been a season-long strength for the Bears, while Green Bay’s ground attack has stalled. That matters in December football, especially against a defense that thrives when it can force second-and-long situations. Chicago is also the healthier roster, and that gap is growing at key positions.

There is also a situational angle. Teams coming off games against Denver are 3–10 the following week, and Green Bay looked physically taxed in that matchup. Missing multiple stars, not just rotational players, the Packers are limping into a hostile environment. Chicago’s roster depth and home-field defensive advantage give them the edge.

Projected score: Bears 27, Packers 23

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants Giants +3 points

This is the upset of the week, built on competitiveness, quarterback trust, and misleading records. The Giants have lost four of their last five games by one score, which tells you they are closer than the standings suggest. They are also running the ball effectively, posting six straight games with 100-plus rushing yards despite lacking a star running back.

Jackson Dart has been the surprise. Over his last five games, he owns a 95 passer rating without a true number one receiver or running back. That level of efficiency matters, especially at home. He has shown poise, accuracy, and the ability to avoid the kind of reckless mistakes that sink young quarterbacks.

Minnesota’s recent wins do not inspire confidence. Two of them came against the Commanders and Cowboys, both struggling defensively. The Vikings have lost four of their last six overall, and the offense has been inconsistent. In a close game, trusting the quarterback who is playing cleaner football at home makes sense.

Projected score: Giants 28, Vikings 27

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals Bengals -4.5

This is a tone and quarterback mismatch play, and it may be the strongest position of the week. Cincinnati has scored 30 points in two of its last three games, and Joe Burrow is entering his most dangerous part of the season. In Weeks 16 through 18 over his career, Burrow is 7–0, and he has now won eight of his last ten starts.

There is also motivation here. Cincinnati’s loss to Baltimore was flat, and Burrow’s postgame demeanor suggested frustration rather than resignation. Historically, that version of Burrow responds aggressively. When he is locked in late in the year, the Bengals offense becomes relentless.

Miami’s resume is shaky. Five of their six wins have come against the Jets twice, Saints, Falcons, Commanders, and now they turn to a quarterback with limited upside in this spot. Regardless of scheme or game plan, this ultimately comes down to trust. Joe Burrow at home against an overmatched quarterback is a clear edge.

Projected score: Bengals 30, Dolphins 20

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens Patriots +3

This line feels wrong, and those are often the best bets. New England is 6–0 on the road and has outgained its opponents in nine straight games following a loss. That speaks to preparation, coaching, and week-to-week adjustments. Drake May continues to operate at a high efficiency level, hovering around a 70 percent completion rate and consistently moving the chains.

The Patriots also showed they can control quality opponents, dominating Buffalo in the first half last week. Offensively, they stay on schedule and limit negative plays, which travels well. This is not a fluky road team surviving on turnovers.

Baltimore, meanwhile, is trending in the wrong direction. They are 3–5 at home in their last eight games, the passing game has stalled, and the secondary has become vulnerable. Drake May’s willingness to challenge downfield should stress a Ravens defense that has struggled to close games. Taking the points with the better-coached, more consistent road team makes sense.

Projected score: Patriots 28, Ravens 27

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts 49ers -5.5

This is a momentum and ceiling play. San Francisco enters on a four-game winning streak, with all four wins coming by double digits. Their third-down offense has been excellent, Brock Purdy is efficient, and the offense is relatively healthy compared to earlier in the season.

Indianapolis is coming off an emotional, feel-good story week, but the production does not match the narrative. The quarterback play was limited, the yards per attempt were minimal, and the offense struggled to push the ball downfield. Against a defense that can disguise coverages and generate pressure, that becomes a problem.

San Francisco also has urgency. With Seattle staying competitive in the division, the 49ers need statement wins. They can move the pocket, stress the Colts’ secondary, and apply sustained pressure that Indianapolis cannot match offensively. This sets up as a controlled road win with separation late.

Projected score: 49ers 34, Colts 24