Colin Cowherd’s Blazin’ 5 Picks: NFL Week 4 in 2025

Colin Cowherd’s Blazing Five stumbled badly in Week 3, limping to a 1–4 record. The lone bright spots were Seattle blowing out New Orleans, but the rest of the slate unraveled in brutal fashion. The worst came in Philadelphia, where the Rams looked poised to cash before a blocked field goal was returned for a meaningless touchdown as time expired, flipping a cover into a gut-punch loss.

The Patriots couldn’t hold up at home, the Cowboys-Bears over never materialized, and the Rams collapse turned what could have been a solid bounce-back week into a near wipeout. Sometimes the process is right, but the variance is cruel, and Week 3 felt like one of those stretches.

Onto week 4…

Blazing 5 Record

2025 Season: 34-21 (61.8%)

Week 1: 3-2
Week 2: 2-3
Week 3: 1-4
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-2
Week 6: 4-1
Week 7: 4-1
Week 8: 4-1
Week 9: 2-3
Week 10: 3-2
Week 11: 5-0
Week 12:

Past Records

2024: 30-47-2 (39.0%)
2023: 45-35-5 (56.3%)
2022: 44-37-4 (54.3%)
2021: 39-47 (45.3%)
2020: 40-42-2 (48.8%)
2019: 42-41-3 (50.6%)
2018: 43-33-2 (57.7%)
2017: 43-29-3 (59.7%)
2016: 44-33-3 (57.1%)

Colin Cowherd Week 4 2025 Blazing 5

Vikings −2.5 vs. Steelers

Minnesota −2.5 is the favorite play on his board, and the reasoning is straightforward. He trusts the staff, he trusts the structure, and he trusts the defense that’s been playing like a top-five unit. The Vikings have been a dependable road group, and he sees them as better on both lines with more ways to score in scripted situations.

Pittsburgh, by contrast, still can’t find a run game and has struggled to protect the quarterback well enough to get into rhythm. Add in Minnesota’s play-makers returning to full usage and it tilts to the road favorite.

Predicted game flow: the Vikings’ early script works, they create a two-score cushion by halftime, and then salt it away with a measured mix of shots to the perimeter and chain-moving throws. Call it 27-20, Vikings cover.

Key notes he emphasized

Better offensive staff, better defense, and a cleaner identity on the road
Steelers offense still searching for answers in the run game and protection
Minnesota’s perimeter talent creates mismatches against soft zones

Panthers at Patriots — Over 43.5

He doesn’t get why this number is in the low 40s. Take the over 43.5 because both defenses are struggling to affect the passer and explosive plays are there for the taking.

New England has quietly moved the ball; turnovers, not drives, have sunk them. Drake Maye has completed well over 70 percent of his throws the last two weeks when kept clean. Carolina isn’t getting home — one sack through three games — and that projects a comfortable pocket at Foxborough. On the other side, the Patriots aren’t generating a pass rush either, which means Bryce Young can operate in rhythm if protection holds. With the bad weather out of town, there’s no external brake on scoring.

Predicted game flow: quick passes, YAC, and red-zone trips for both sides. He projects a 26-23 Patriots win, which clears the number.

Why he likes points here

Two defenses that don’t pressure, opening up easy completions
Both young quarterbacks are accurate when kept clean
Weather not a factor; pace stays steady for four quarters

Colts at Rams −3.5

This is a classic “McVay bounce-back at home” spot off a frustrating close loss. He’s on Rams −3.5 because the underlying profile remains strong: by grading, they’re among the league’s top teams, they dominated a half in Philadelphia, and the pass game has answers everywhere. Puka Nacua is a coverage problem, Kyren Williams adds efficiency and balance, and Matthew Stafford’s timing throws punish the soft spots Indy leaves.

He’s also fading the Colts’ back end. Last week the Indy offense came down to earth on third down, and he sees their secondary as vulnerable to layered route concepts. The Rams’ front has been getting real pressure, which should force hurried decisions and set up short fields.

Predicted game flow: long Rams drives early, a couple of explosive shots after halftime, and enough heat on the Colts to protect the number. Rams 30-24.

What pushed this onto the card

McVay at home after a near-miss
L.A.’s pass rush trending up against a middling pass pro week
Matchup edge for Rams receivers on Indy’s back end

Bears at Raiders −1.5

He’s laying the small number with Las Vegas −1.5. The headline is Chicago’s road form: 1-8 in their last nine away from home, and the defense has been leaking explosives. Opponents are averaging 6.7 yards per play and completing around three-quarters of their passes against the Bears — not a recipe for an upset in the desert.

He expects the Raiders to run with intent, control the tempo, and then hit chunk throws off protection. Chicago’s secondary injuries limit how aggressive they can be with pressure, so the Raiders should have time to work the intermediate windows. He sees this as the week the Vegas ground game finally looks like a feature, not a cameo.

Predicted game flow: Raiders establish the line of scrimmage, win early downs, and keep the Bears chasing the sticks. Raiders 27-23.

Reasons he’s comfortable backing Vegas

Bears defense allowing big plays and high completion rates
Chicago’s persistent road issues and red-zone leakage
Raiders’ offense in a good spot to lean on the run and create explosives

Bengals at Broncos −7

He’s riding Denver −7 despite two gut-punch road losses at the horn. Why? He thinks the Broncos are actually good and undervalued, with the better coach, the sturdier defense, and the trench advantage in this matchup. The Broncos are elite in the red zone and lead the league in sacks, a nasty combination against a Bengals offense that hasn’t been able to run and now asks the quarterback to live in long yardage.

Denver also gets help in the short and intermediate passing game with the tight end back in the mix, a crucial outlet because the vertical game hasn’t fully clicked. Against Cincinnati’s shaky protection, Denver’s front can dictate terms, shorten fields, and force a one-dimensional plan.

Predicted game flow: Broncos own the line of scrimmage, build a lead with field position, and squeeze the Bengals in the second half. Broncos 30-20.

Edge cases he highlighted

Second-best red-zone defense, meaning field goals for the visitor instead of touchdowns
A relentless pass rush versus the league’s least productive run game
Coaching advantage in situational football

Other Week-4 Thoughts He Flagged

Stay-away spotlight: Chiefs vs. Ravens

He’s uneasy with both sides right now. Kansas City lacks juice on offense and hasn’t leaned into the run game enough to help the structure. Baltimore is the inverse: explosive on offense, surprisingly leaky on defense given the investment. With identities wobbling, he’s passing rather than guessing which version shows up.

Tempting but left off

Seattle’s overall profile
He sees a roster in its prime with real defensive speed and an offense that knows exactly what it is. But with the Blazing 5 already tilted toward favorites, he kept them off to avoid overexposure.
Eagles bully ball
Philadelphia’s power game pops on tape, but they’ve been streaky half-to-half and he preferred the cleaner matchup edges on the board.

Team he believes is better than the record

Denver
Two losses at the buzzer can warp perception. He framed the Broncos as a “really, really good” team that just hasn’t cashed the right bounces yet. That’s part of why they made the card as a touchdown favorite — he expects the market to catch up to the roster soon.

If you must get cute with derivatives

Vikings first-half −1
Minnesota scripts well and should hit early explosives against a Steelers attack that starts slow on the road.
Rams team total over
The Colts’ secondary is beatable by motion and stacks, staples in McVay’s plan when he smells blood.

Overall card personality this week

He leaned into favorites and one total. The thread through all five plays is trench trust and pass-rush pressure: Vikings to control on both lines, Rams to harass and pick on coverage rules, Raiders to run against a wounded secondary, Broncos to collapse the pocket, and Patriots-Panthers to turn into a clean-pocket passing game with sustained drives. If that script holds, the board makes sense — and the Blazing 5 has a path back to profit.