Bill Simmons and Joe House’s Week 15 NFL Picks 2025
Onto week 15…
Bill Simmons NFL Picks Record
2025 Season: 33-37 (47.1%)
- Week 1: 1-4
- Week 2: 3-2
- Week 3: 1-4
- Week 4: 3-2
- Week 5: 2-3
- Week 6: 4-1
- Week 7: 3-2
- Week 8: 3-2
- Week 9: 2-3
- Week 10: 2-3
- Week 11: 3-2
- Week 12: 2-3
- Week 13: 2-3
- Week 14: 2-3
- Week 15:
Bill Simmons Week 15 NFL Picks 2025
• Seahawks –6.5 + Under 48.5 (parlay) vs Colts
• Dolphins +3 at Steelers
• Packers –2.5 at Broncos
• Chiefs –5.5 vs Chargers
• Ravens –2.5 at Bengals
Seahawks –6.5 + Under 48.5 vs Colts (Parlay)
This is a classic pace and matchup play. Indianapolis is starting a 45-year-old Philip Rivers after five years away, behind a shaky offensive line, against one of the two best defenses in football. The Colts’ only realistic path is ultra-conservative football with long play clocks, short passes, and field goals, which naturally drags the total down.
Seattle has allowed only four first-half touchdowns since Week 7 and thrives against immobile quarterbacks. Short fields are the only real threat to the under, and even then this profiles as a game where each team might only have six or seven real possessions. Seattle by margin in a slow, ugly game fits both legs cleanly.
Dolphins +3 at Steelers
This is the ultimate zag. Everyone sees cold weather, Monday night, and Tua and immediately wants Pittsburgh, but Miami has quietly reinvented itself as a power running team. Tua is barely asked to do anything high-risk anymore, and Miami ran the ball more than 40 times last week while throwing for barely 125 yards.
Pittsburgh’s defense is 27th in EPA against the run, TJ Watt may not be 100 percent, and the Steelers’ offense has lived on razor-thin margins all season. This feels like a true coin-flip game where getting a full field goal has value, especially with sharp money pushing the line down early in the week.
Packers –2.5 at Broncos
This is a weight-class game. Denver has not been cleanly beaten often, but almost all of their best wins came with context working in their favor, injured quarterbacks, struggling teams, or unusual circumstances. Green Bay is the more complete roster and travels well.
Schematically, this favors the Packers. Denver plays single-high safety and man coverage, which Jordan Love has crushed, while Green Bay’s zone looks consistently confuse Bo Nix. The Broncos have survived a lot of close outcomes, but this feels like regression week against a true heavyweight.
Chiefs –5.5 vs Chargers
Everything lines up here. Kansas City desperately needs the game, while the Chargers are coming off a physical overtime road game and now have to travel into 17-degree weather with an offensive line that struggles even at home. Bad offensive lines do not travel, especially in the cold.
The Chiefs win ugly but consistently, and this matchup limits backdoor cover potential. Los Angeles has been poor on the road, Herbert is dealing with a hand issue, and sustained drives will be extremely difficult. This is a spot to trust urgency, defense, and environment rather than style points.
Ravens –2.5 at Bengals
This is a revenge and desperation spot for Baltimore. The Ravens lost two straight heartbreakers to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, both driven by turnovers, officiating swings, and short fields. They are still the better team and their season effectively ends with a loss here.
Cincinnati is missing Tee Higgins, Hendrickson is on IR, and their emotional high point was Thanksgiving. Eighteen-degree weather is not ideal for Lamar, but it sets up well for a Derrick Henry game script. The Bengals and Ravens tend to split, and this is Baltimore’s turn in a must-win spot.