Bill Simmons and Joe House’s Week 10 NFL Picks 2025
Onto week 10…
Bill Simmons NFL Picks Record
2025 Season: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 1: 1-4
- Week 2: 3-2
- Week 3: 1-4
- Week 4: 3-2
- Week 5: 2-3
- Week 6: 4-1
- Week 7: 3-2
- Week 8: 3-2
- Week 9: 2-3
- Week 10: 2-3
- Week 11: 3-2
- Week 12:
Bill Simmons Week 10 NFL Picks 2025
Here’s the clean card.
- Buccaneers –2.5 vs Patriots
- Parlay: Ravens –2.5 (alt) at Vikings + Bills moneyline vs Dolphins (≈ –120)
- Eagles +2.5 at Packers
- 49ers +4.5 vs Rams
- Texans +1.5 vs Jaguars
Buccaneers –2.5 vs Patriots
New England’s allowed 17 sacks in three weeks and keeps bleeding chunk plays to TEs/RBs—bad news against a rested Bucs offense that wants to throw. Tampa’s off the bye with healthier skill guys, while the Pats’ WR room is banged up and their run-stuffing strength doesn’t matter as much vs Baker’s quick-game spread.
Parlay: Ravens –2.5 at Vikings + Bills ML vs Dolphins (≈ –120)
If Baltimore’s a real contender, they can’t drop this—healthier, deeper, and facing JJ/Carson chaos after Minny’s emotional spike. Pair it with Buffalo at home: the Bills can bully Miami on the ground with Allen + backs, keep Mahomes-style explosives off script, and turn it into a possession game. Two teams that can each win by a score or two.
Eagles +2.5 at Packers
Buy Philly in a “re‐assert ourselves” spot. The Eagles’ pass rush (plus Nolan Smith and the new additions) is primed to stress a GB line that’s 28th in run block win rate and can’t consistently set up play-action. With Luke Musgrave/Kraft issues and WR uncertainty, Green Bay’s methodical drives can be disrupted; take the points.
49ers +4.5 vs Rams
Too many points in a rivalry coin-flip. Week 5 was OT and the Rams needed breaks; special teams volatility (kicker woes) adds hidden value to SF as a home dog. Even with defensive attrition, Shanahan can keep this within a field goal via run game, screens, and scripted edges.
Texans +1.5 vs Jaguars
We’re backing the defense: Houston is top-tier across rush, pass, and YPP, and DeMeco’s front can speed up Trevor, who’s been skittish under heat. JAX is 27th vs the pass and low on sacks; with Nico back and a week of plan-specific reps for Mills, Houston can hit a couple schemed shots and let the D finish the job.