Bill Simmons and Joe House’s Week 12 NFL Picks 2025
Onto week 12…
Bill Simmons NFL Picks Record
2025 Season: 27-28 (49%)
- Week 1: 1-4
- Week 2: 3-2
- Week 3: 1-4
- Week 4: 3-2
- Week 5: 2-3
- Week 6: 4-1
- Week 7: 3-2
- Week 8: 3-2
- Week 9: 2-3
- Week 10: 2-3
- Week 11: 3-2
- Week 12:
Bill Simmons Week 12 NFL Picks 2025
• Chiefs –1.5 + Lions moneyline (parlay)
• Jaguars –2.5 at Cardinals
• Buccaneers +6.5 at Rams
• Saints –1.5 vs Falcons
• Patriots –6.5 at Bengals
Chiefs –1.5 + Lions Moneyline (Parlay)
The first play is a parlay built around the simplest possible thesis: Kansas City absolutely cannot afford to fall to 5–6, and Detroit is not losing to a broken Giants team at home. The Chiefs drop from –3.5 to –1.5, paired with the Lions straight up, gets this under the –120 threshold while allowing Simmons and House to essentially bet on Patrick Mahomes to win a must-win game by at least two points. Kansas City has underachieved, misfired, and flat-out frustrated for ten weeks, but the underlying logic remains: they still generate open receivers, Mahomes still left plays on the field last week, and teams with generational quarterbacks don’t typically roll over at .500.
Detroit is the stability piece in the parlay. The Lions are coming off a bad loss, returning multiple starters, and facing a Giants team that can’t block, can’t throw, and can’t move the ball in any sustained way. It’s the classic “reset” home spot for a contender and the cleanest moneyline anchor on the board.
Jaguars –2.5 at Cardinals
This is Simmons’ “tequila worm in the bottle” pick: the one you know is dangerous but you drink anyway. Jacksonville on the road is never comfortable, and Trevor Lawrence has looked shaky enough to trigger a full-on existential crisis among Jags fans. But this is exactly the window where Simmons thinks they sneak to 10–7 and we all look back wondering how they did it.
Arizona’s defense is collapsing. They’ve surrendered 84 points in two weeks, can’t stop the run, and offer no home-field advantage beyond fluorescent lighting. No Marvin Harrison Jr. and a “garbage-time-only” Jacoby Brissett push even more of the burden onto an offense that will be playing from behind. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is quietly elite against the run, which forces Brissett to play into his weaknesses. The Jags are inconsistent, chaotic, and generally untrustworthy—but the Cardinals are worse, and this matchup tilts cleanly toward a Jacksonville bounce-back.
Buccaneers +6.5 at Rams
This is a pure number grab. Simmons watched Tampa’s full game against Buffalo and came away impressed: the Bucs moved the ball, stayed competitive deep into the fourth quarter, and looked physically tougher than market perception. Their defense travels, their run game is improving, and they feel like a team that’s been hovering around a breakthrough that hasn’t come yet.
The Rams, meanwhile, just played their emotional high-point win of the season. They were due for regression before that victory, and they enter this matchup inflated by public enthusiasm and recency bias. LA’s offense was mostly stagnant last week outside a few splash plays, and this line feels like it should be closer to Rams –4 or –4.5. Getting +6.5 against a physical opponent in a flat-spot setup is classic “flash sale” value.
Saints –1.5 vs Falcons
House’s favorite pick on the board: a chance to fade Kirk Cousins and Raheem Morris on the road without Drake London. London’s absence crushes Atlanta’s run-game efficiency, and Cousins—still unable to push off his leg with conviction—is facing a Saints defense that actually matches up well against what the Falcons want to do.
New Orleans isn’t good, but this rivalry is personal and Saints-Falcons always takes on a higher emotional temperature. With two weeks to prepare, New Orleans gets a clean shot at a Falcons team leaning on a quarterback House believes simply cannot play winning football anymore. Simmons’ mailbag rant about Cousins only added fuel—this is a bet against Atlanta’s structure as much as their QB.
Patriots –6.5 at Bengals
The Patriots have quietly become a team that handles bad offenses and buries wounded opponents, especially on the road. Cincinnati is exactly that kind of opponent right now: no Ja’Marr Chase, a deeply broken defense, and the bizarre “maybe Burrow comes back?” rumor hanging over the week. That’s enough noise to spook the market and shave the Patriots’ price, and Simmons jumps on the value.
Cincinnati’s home field won’t matter. Their fanbase is demoralized, their offense is bottom-tier without Chase, and their run defense has cratered. The Patriots should move the ball at will—something they haven’t been able to do against the tougher defenses they’ve faced the past three weeks. This has blowout potential, especially if Cincinnati ends up starting anyone other than Burrow. This is the one favorite Simmons felt comfortable laying the points with.