Cowboys-Eagles was the headline matchup of the week, but Bill Simmons and Joe House quickly pivoted from that lightning-delayed mess to the task at hand: launching their “Ringer 107” contest picks. With five games to select each week against the spread or via parlays, they walked through stayaways, leans, and the actual five bets that made the cut. The result was a slate that leaned on quarterback–coach trust, early-season momentum, and skepticism about a few overhyped teams.

Chiefs -3 vs Chargers (Neutral Site in Brazil)

Simmons set House up perfectly for their most confident play of the week. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes rarely lose in Week One—6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread since Mahomes became the starter. The one blemish was that fluky Detroit opener in 2023 when Travis Kelce and Chris Jones were both out. With a deeper receiving corps (Hollywood Brown, rookie Xavier Worthy) and Isiah Pacheco healthy, Kansas City feels much more stable than last season.

House hammered the point that the Chargers have been owned by the Chiefs during the Mahomes era, and with Los Angeles losing a key tackle in the preseason, Simmons asked bluntly: who exactly is betting the Chargers at only +3? Both agreed this was a gift line.

Falcons +1.5 vs Buccaneers

This one came after Simmons was reluctantly talked off his Seahawks upset dream. Instead, House persuaded him to back Atlanta at home against a banged-up Tampa team.

The Falcons may be starting rookie Michael Penix Jr., but the matchup sets up well. The Bucs are without their left tackle, their receiver room is thin early, and Liam Coen’s offense hasn’t had time to click. Simmons admitted he wants Tampa later in the season, but in September—with all the health questions—it felt smarter to grab Atlanta as a small home dog.

Bears +1.5 vs Vikings (Monday Night)

Simmons has been bullish on Chicago all offseason, even pegging them as a sneaky playoff contender. Ben Johnson takes over the offense, the roster looks deeper, and the defense should be steadier. Week One brings J.J. McCarthy into Soldier Field in primetime, a daunting spot for a rookie.

House referenced how bad things were under Matt Eberflus last year and how quickly Johnson has raised the competency level. Without Jordan Addison, the Vikings will likely lean heavily on the run game—perfect for a Chicago front built to defend it. Both saw this as one of the cleaner lines on the board.

Ravens -1.5 at Bills

This pick was less about loving Baltimore and more about fading Buffalo’s injury-riddled secondary. Both starting corners—Tre’Davious White and Christian Benford—are out, the safeties are banged up, and depth is thin. Lamar Jackson in September is a far safer bet than Lamar in January, and Simmons framed this as the right moment to ride Baltimore before the inevitable playoff doubts creep back in.

House emphasized that Baltimore might have the most talented roster in the league, even with Isaiah Likely and fullback Patrick Ricard missing. With Buffalo’s defense scrambling for bodies, the edge tilted toward the Ravens.

Jaguars Moneyline + Broncos Moneyline Parlay

For their flex spot, Simmons and House debated taking Jacksonville straight up at -3.5 versus Carolina. Ultimately, they opted for safety: parlaying Jaguars ML with Broncos ML.

The case for Jacksonville was simple: the Panthers have arguably the worst defense in the NFC, their receivers are already nicked up, and Bryce Young hasn’t yet proved he can carry them. Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence should be in rhythm right away.

Denver, meanwhile, hosts rookie QB Cameron Ward and a Titans team that went 2-15 against the spread last season. Sean Payton’s Broncos aren’t likely to botch a home opener, making this a high-confidence pairing.

Notable Stayaways

Simmons listed six games he wouldn’t touch, including:

• Browns-Bengals (Cleveland at home is tempting, but no one trusts the Browns in Week One)
• Giants-Commanders (too much line movement, too much Giants hype)
• Colts-Dolphins (injury flags on Tyreek Hill and Miami’s OL)
• Falcons-Bucs (almost a stayaway, but it made the final five)
• Rams-Texans (Stafford’s health, Texans’ unknown RB situation)
• Jets-Steelers (both teams could win ugly; Simmons joked about betting Steelers to win without covering)

Final Slate: Ringer 107 Week One Picks

• Chiefs -3 vs Chargers (Brazil)
• Falcons +1.5 vs Buccaneers
• Bears +1.5 vs Vikings (MNF)
• Ravens -1.5 at Bills
• Jaguars ML + Broncos ML parlay

Big Picture Takeaways

• Simmons likened Dallas to a “discount Bengals” after their near-miss vs Philly, but he warned not to overreact to Week One noise.
• Both noted the NFL’s obsession with random rule tweaks like taunting, predicting it will swing a key game in September.
• Simmons remains wary of the Packers-Lions line and suspects Detroit’s toughness could spoil Green Bay optimism early.
• They both flagged Saints-Cardinals as the most likely “surprise upset” of the week—a game where survivor pool players could get burned.

In the end, Simmons and House trust Mahomes, Lamar, Trevor Lawrence, and an upgraded Bears roster while steering clear of trap lines and injury minefields. If the first week’s slate is any indication, their 107-pick journey will mix conviction with caution, aiming for that magic 60-win benchmark.