Bill Simmons had a rough Week 1 on his straight picks, missing with the Chiefs in Brazil, the Falcons against Tampa, the Bears on Monday night, and the Ravens in Buffalo’s wild comeback.
But his Jaguars–Broncos moneyline parlay came through cleanly, with Jacksonville handling Carolina 26–10 and Denver topping Tennessee 20–12. So while the individual plays stumbled, the parlay saved him from a complete shutout.
Bill Simmons finished Week 1 with a 1–4 record.
Bill Simmons Week 2 NFL Picks 2025
Pick 1: Patriots at Dolphins
- Play: Patriots +1.5
- Why: Miami’s defense looked disorganized, its tackling inconsistent, and its answers over the middle thin. New England has real team speed this year and multiple ways to lean on a shaky front seven. If Christian Gonzalez is in, the coverage shells get tighter and Tua has to drive throws outside the numbers.
- Script that wins: run rate up, Drake Maye on defined reads, Henderson usage increases, play-action explosives off duo.
Pick 2: Broncos at Colts
- Play: Broncos -2.5
- Why: Denver’s defense is the adult in the room. One flat opener doesn’t erase a top-tier pass rush and a secondary that rallies to the ball. The Colts’ offensive fireworks came against a poorly coordinated unit; this is a step up in both structure and talent.
- Key hinge: Bo Nix only has to be competent. If Sean Payton leans back into under-center play-action, the Colts’ linebackers will bite and the chains will move.
Pick 3: Vikings at Falcons
- Play: Falcons +3.5
- Why: Minnesota’s defense is dinged and on a short week, and this number still gifts a hook. Atlanta quietly moved the ball in Week 1; self-inflicted wounds hid how often they won the line of scrimmage. Back-door equity is live even if the script gets weird.
- What to expect: a heavy run plan, RPO slants, and manufactured touches that punish the Vikings’ second-level voids.
Pick 4: Bills at Jets
- Play: Jets +6.5
- Why: This feels three points high. New York’s offense was exactly what it promised—downhill runs, efficient QB usage, and speed at the edge. Buffalo’s defense leaked explosives and lived off a high-leverage turnover. In Jersey, with a ground game that travels, this shapes like a one-score grind.
- Pressure point: if the Jets win early downs, Josh Allen has to be perfect late. That’s a bet on variance you’ll take with nearly a touchdown.
Pick 5 (parlay card): Panthers at Cardinals, Eagles at Chiefs
- Play: Cardinals moneyline + Eagles alt line +4.5 (same-game alt not required)
- Why: Arizona should maul a Panthers front that struggles to fit the run for four quarters; no need to get cute with spreads. In Kansas City, even if Mahomes steals it late, the game profile screams tight—Philly’s lines can bully situational downs and force field goals.
- Path to cashing: Cardinals eclipse 180 rushing yards; Eagles keep Mahomes behind the sticks and trade 7s for 3s.
Uneven but essential notes on Green Bay’s ceiling
- The defense can rush four and still suffocate the middle of the field. That lets them keep a lid on explosives without surrendering cheap underneath rhythm.
- Tucker Kraft matters. When your tight end wins in condensed space, red-zone sequencing gets simple and your QB’s job gets easy.
- Love’s MVP candidacy isn’t a novelty anymore—it’s math. Quarterback a 14–3 team with clean counting stats and you’re on every ballot.
Are the Packers live for the NFC one-seed?
Short answer: yes. The early block—at Browns, at Cowboys, Bengals—will test their trench depth more than their quarterback. If they get to Week 10 vs. the Eagles with one or fewer losses, bank on home-field talk heating up. Lambeau still carries a playoff tax when the pass rush is this fast.
Smart stay-aways this week
- Jaguars +3.5 at Bengals
Two leaky O-lines, two defenses susceptible to explosives, and a back-door minefield. - 49ers vs Saints (QB chaos tax)
Spencer Rattler vs M. Jones is a volatility cocktail. Line drift plus QB uncertainty equals hard pass. - Panthers at Cardinals -6.5
Arizona belongs in parlays and straight MLs, not teasers or spreads north of six with Kyler variance.
Quick-hit angles I couldn’t leave on the cutting-room floor
- Washington futures live, but fragile
The path to ten wins is there if they rediscover early-down rushing efficiency and protect Daniels from hero-ball on third-and-7. - Green Bay’s offense is opponent-agnostic
They can win speed games or trench games; that’s what travels in January. - Coaching edges matter most in Week 2
Lean toward staffs that self-scout ruthlessly after openers. That’s where New England and Denver hold real advantages this week.
Final lean, gut-checked
Packers belong in the NFC’s top tier now, not later. The portfolio this week is built on that reality and on spots where the trenches, not the headlines, decide outcomes:
- Patriots +1.5
- Broncos -2.5
- Falcons +3.5
- Jets +6.5
- Cardinals ML + Eagles +4.5 (parlay)
When the lines tell one story and the matchups tell another, trust the tape.